固收点评20250508：降准降息，债市怎么看？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 7, 2025, the central bank announced a package of monetary policies, including a 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut, a 10BP policy rate cut, and adjustments to structural policy tools, which was somewhat beyond market expectations [3]. - The reserve requirement ratio cut is in line with market expectations as it addresses the need for long - term liquidity due to government bond issuance, bank liability repair, and upcoming liquidity maturities. The policy rate cut is necessary considering the domestic economic situation and the easing of exchange - rate pressure, and it also helps guide the decline of real - economy financing costs [4][7]. - After the "double cut" (reserve requirement ratio and policy rate cut), the bond market showed a differentiated trend with short - term strength and long - term profit - taking and correction. In the short - term, the decline space depends on the downward rhythm and space of the capital interest rate. In the long - term, although there is a short - term profit - taking situation, the bond market is still in a bull market environment in the long run [9][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 "适时降准降息"兑现 (Implementation of "Timely Reserve Requirement Ratio and Policy Rate Cuts") 3.1.1 Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut - A 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut will release about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity. Since 2021, the central bank has conducted two reserve requirement ratio cuts each year, and there was no cut in the first half of this year. The cut is in line with market expectations for the following reasons: - In the second quarter, government bonds will continue to be issued at a fast pace, which may disrupt liquidity. The central bank has mainly used reverse repurchases to release short - term funds, and the current reverse repurchase balance is at a seasonal high. Reserve requirement ratio cuts are needed to release long - term liquidity [4]. - The bank's liability side needs further repair. Since the implementation of the new regulations on non - bank inter - bank deposits at the end of 2024, the liability pressure of large banks has become prominent. Although the recent deposit certificate interest rate has declined and the bank's lending level has recovered, it is still lower than the 2024 central level. The large maturity volume of deposit certificates in May and June also increases the pressure on renewal [5]. - 1025 billion yuan and 1382 billion yuan of medium - and long - term liquidity will mature in May and June, which will also affect the capital market [5]. - The deposit reserve ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies will be temporarily reduced to 0% to boost consumption and investment [5]. 3.1.2 Policy Rate Cut - The policy rate is cut by 10BP, with the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate dropping from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is expected to drive the loan prime rate (LPR) down by about 10BP. The cut is in line with the domestic economic situation and the easing of exchange - rate pressure, and it helps guide the decline of real - economy financing costs. After the policy rate cut, LPR and deposit interest rates are expected to follow suit, which is conducive to stabilizing bank spreads [7]. - The interest rates of structural policy tools are cut by 25BP, including various special structural tools, agricultural and small - business re - lending rates, and the PSL rate. There is a need for a supplementary cut as the previous cuts of these structural tool rates were not in sync with the policy rate cuts [8]. 3.2 债市怎么看？ (What about the Bond Market?) - After the "double cut" on May 7, the bond market showed a differentiated trend with short - term strength and long - term profit - taking and correction. The release of medium - and long - term liquidity is beneficial to the short - term and deposit certificates, while the long - term bonds, which had already implied some rate - cut expectations, were relatively weak [9]. - Referring to previous rate cuts since 2022, the bond market often trades the rate - cut expectations in advance. Currently, the market has an extreme trading pattern with a flat curve. The long - term bonds may have implied a nearly 30BP rate - cut expectation before, and still imply a 15 - 20BP rate - cut expectation based on the policy rate as an "anchor" [10]. - For the short - term, the implementation of loose monetary policy will open up the downward space for short - term bonds, but the amplitude depends on the downward rhythm and space of the capital interest rate. For the long - term, although there is a short - term profit - taking situation, the bond market is still in a bull market environment in the long run. The 10 - year treasury bond may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and credit varieties with previously widened spreads may experience a repair market [11].