新能源及有色金属日报：锌锭库存低位制约锌价下跌空间-20250508

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - Low zinc ingot inventory restricts the downside space of zinc prices. The consumption resilience and inventory changes are the main factors affecting zinc prices, but there is a possibility of weakening consumption after May [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$39.30 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 90 yuan/ton to 22,770 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 55 yuan/ton to 515 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices also decreased, while their premiums increased [1] - Futures: On May 7, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,300 yuan/ton, closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 155,956 lots, an increase of 40,900 lots, and the open interest was 116,701 lots, an increase of 4,986 lots [1] - Inventory: As of May 6, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 84,100 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous week. As of May 7, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 171,400 tons, a decrease of 1,525 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - Cost: TC remains high and relatively stable, with limited upside potential in the future. It does not affect smelters' profits and is not the main concern for now [3] - Supply: In May, the expected output is slightly lower, but still shows high year - on - year growth. There may be a delay in maintenance, and the supply pressure remains [3] - Consumption: It is the current focus. The continuous decline in social inventory and the rising spot premium support zinc prices. However, due to the approaching end of the export rush window and possible over - consumption, consumption may weaken month - on - month after May [3]