美联储5月议息会议点评：唯一确定的是不确定性

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.5%, aligning with market expectations, and emphasized a neutral stance moving forward[2] - The Fed's statement highlighted increased uncertainty regarding economic conditions, with a specific mention of rising risks related to unemployment and inflation[2] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock indices rose: S&P 500 up 0.4%, Nasdaq up 0.3%, and Dow Jones up 0.7%[3] - The market's expectations for rate cuts slightly decreased, with June cut probability dropping from approximately 30% to 20% and July cut probability from 100% to 80%[3] Economic Outlook - The report indicates a dual challenge for the Fed, balancing between stagnation and inflation, while also facing a liquidity crisis in overseas markets[1] - The probability of a U.S. recession within the next year has increased from 20% at the beginning of the year to 40%[5] Future Monitoring - The next two months are critical for observing trade negotiations and economic data, particularly as the tariff exemption period ends in early July[1] - The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for June 18, where the economic landscape may still be unclear for making decisive policy changes[4]