化工日报：中美拟开始会谈，聚酯产业链冲高回落-20250508

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are short - term neutral, and mid - term performance depends on Sino - US tariffs and crude oil changes [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Amidst positive macro news of China - US talks and the US Treasury Secretary's statement, the polyester industry chain first rose and then fell. Continued attention should be paid to the progress of China - US negotiations [1] - PX and PTA are in a state of low valuation and inventory reduction, but their rebound is limited due to weak gasoline and poor demand expectations. Short - term focus is on crude oil and macro changes [4] - For short - fiber, the US tariff situation is improving, but market sentiment is stable with limited willingness to chase high prices, and the market is in a volatile consolidation [4] - For PR, the tariff policy has little impact on its demand, but the processing margin is limited, and prices are expected to follow raw material costs [4] 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes charts on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Charts cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Charts show the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Charts display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][36] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Charts include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Charts cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament inventory days, and operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][60] PF Detailed Data - Charts show polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - regenerated spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, and production profit, as well as polyester - cotton yarn operating rate and processing fee [71][79][81] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Charts show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle - chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chips, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [88][91][94]