巴西中南部新榨季开产，白糖短期弱势运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major producing areas except Yunnan have completed the sugar - crushing process, and a restorative increase in sugar production is certain. Holiday consumption during festivals like May Day has boosted sugar demand and supported stable sugar prices. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 season is gradually ramping up, but due to weather factors, sugar production volume is uncertain. It is expected that international sugar prices will oscillate and weaken in the short term. Attention should be paid to the planting and growth of domestic sugarcane and beets, as well as Brazil's sugar production progress [1] - Due to the US tariff hikes on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed down. Cotton consumption has decreased by 200,000 tons to 7.6 million tons, and imports have also decreased by 200,000 tons to 1.5 million tons. Recently, high temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang are generally beneficial for cotton sowing [1] Data Summary Price and Spread Data - Foreign Market Quotes: On May 6 - 7, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from $17.41 to $17.14, a decline of 1.55%; the price of US cotton decreased from $67.82 to $67.4, a decline of 0.62% [3] - Spot Prices: From May 6 - 7, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6,170 yuan to 6,160 yuan, a decline of 0.16%; in Kunming, it decreased from 6,020 yuan to 6,015 yuan, a decline of 0.08%. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3,281 to 3,280, a decline of 0.09%; the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 13,950 yuan to 13,850 yuan, a decline of 0.72% [3] - Spread Data: From May 6 - 7, 2025, various sugar and cotton spreads showed different degrees of decline, while some sugar basis spreads showed an increase and some showed a decrease [3] Import and Profit Data - Import Prices: The price of cotton cotlookA remained at $80 from May 6 - 7, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3] - Profit Margins: The sugar import profit remained at 1,401.5 from May 6 - 7, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3] Option and Warehouse Receipt Data - Options: The implied volatility of SR509C5900 is 0.1029, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 8.99; the implied volatility of SR509P5900 is 0.0958. The implied volatility of CF509C12800 is 0.1311, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 11.9; the implied volatility of CF509P12800 is 0.1314 [3] - Warehouse Receipts: From May 6 - 7, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts increased from 28,629 to 30,301, a growth of 5.84%; the number of cotton warehouse receipts increased from 11,116 to 11,172, a growth of 0.50% [3] Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [9] - The company is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [9]