华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250508

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center of gravity to continue to move down. This year's winter storage is relatively sluggish, providing weak support for prices. The view is that it will move in a volatile and consolidating manner. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] - The short - process construction steel production enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region mostly stopped production and overhauled from mid - to late January during the Spring Festival, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month. During the shutdown period, it is expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons. Among the 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui Province, 1 steel mill started to stop production on January 5th, and most of the other steel mills said they would stop production and take holidays around mid - January, and individual steel mills are expected to stop production after January 20th. The daily output affected during the shutdown period is about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [4] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, the aluminum price adjusted downward. The Federal Reserve kept the target interest rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%, but indicated that the risks of rising inflation and unemployment have increased, and the outlook for the US economy remains unclear. The domestic central bank announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate [3] - In April 2025 (30 days), the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 2.6% year - on - year and decreased by 2.9% month - on - month. In May, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level. The second - batch capacity replacement project of an aluminum plant from Shandong to Yunnan is expected to be carried out in the third quarter, and the first - batch project is expected to achieve output in May. Recently, some enterprises have carried out capacity overhauls, and SMM learned that they mostly use the method of small - batch and rotating overhauls, which has little impact on the supply side [4] - Before the festival, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 61.6% compared with the previous week and decreased by 2.8 percentage points year - on - year. Except for the aluminum cable operating rate, which continued to rise due to strong grid orders, the operating rates of other sectors all declined to varying degrees. Overall, the traditional peak season for aluminum downstream is coming to an end, and the seasonal weakening of terminal demand and overseas trade frictions will put double pressure on the downstream operating rate. Attention should be paid to grid investment, new photovoltaic policies, and the rhythm of tariff transmission [4] - According to SMM statistics, on May 6, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 636,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons compared with last Monday [4] - With domestic macro - support, the Federal Reserve in the overseas market has suspended interest rate cuts again, warning of stagflation risks and reiterating the increase in "uncertainty". Fundamentally, the downstream is gradually approaching the end of the peak season, and the upward pressure on prices is increasing. The relatively low inventory in the short term provides certain support. Pay attention to the subsequent inventory performance, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [5]