高盛：中国思考-自救行动正在进行，但关税拖累可能即将来临

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating on China equity, with a raised 12-month index target for MSCI China and CSI300 to 78 and 4,400, implying potential returns of 7% and 15% respectively [1][31]. Core Insights - Despite trade frictions with the US, China financial assets have shown resilience, with the Rmb appreciating against the USD by 1.7% in the past month and Chinese government bonds reaching all-time highs [1][2]. - The report highlights a targeted monetary easing package from the PBoC, NFRA, and CSRC, which includes 23 measures aimed at supporting the real economy and financial markets [6][8]. - The effective US tariff rate on Chinese imports is expected to decrease from around 160% to approximately 60%, which has led to an upward revision of the 2025 EPS growth estimate for MSCI China from 4% to 6% [1][10][13]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - China equity (MSCI China) has recovered 12% year-to-date and almost fully recovered from a 13% drawdown post-Liberation Day [1][3]. - Southbound flows to HK-listed equities have reached US$80 billion year-to-date, three times larger than the same period last year [19][20]. Monetary Policy - The recent monetary easing measures are seen as a positive surprise, aimed at improving liquidity and reducing funding costs, with a focus on demand-side support [6][8]. - Specific measures include a 50 basis point RRR cut providing approximately Rmb1 trillion in liquidity and targeted assistance for SMEs [8][10]. Economic Indicators - Hard data remains robust, with property sales in primary markets rising 26% year-over-year during the Labor Day holidays, particularly in tier-1 and tier-2 cities [10][11]. - However, soft data indicates signs of moderation, with declining trends in PMIs and cargo shipments [10][11]. Earnings Forecast - The report nudges up the 2025 EPS growth estimate for MSCI China to 6%, reflecting expectations of a lower effective US tariff rate and a stronger Rmb [10][13]. - The revised EPS integer forecast for 2026 remains 8% below the prevailing sell-side consensus [10]. Sector Focus - The report emphasizes a focus on sector and thematic alpha, particularly in domestic stimulus beneficiaries, select AI proxies, and local government spending beneficiaries [1][37]. - Banks and Real Estate have been upgraded to Overweight to enhance domestic exposure and sensitivity to policy easing [37][40].