贵金属数据日报-20250508

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 7, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.88% to 803.5 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 0.17% to 8,252 yuan/kg [4]. - Affected by the expected easing of Sino-US tariffs, the gold price fell from its high. However, due to geopolitical risks in places like Pakistan and India, high uncertainty in tariff policies, and China's central bank's continuous six - month increase in gold reserves, the gold price is expected to remain in a high - level range in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips, and also consider the strategy of shorting gold volatility. Silver is expected to trade in a range [4]. - In the long - term, due to the increasing risk of economic recession in the context of global tariff trade wars, a certain probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in June, high geopolitical uncertainties, and the continued gold purchases by global central banks, gold still has long - term allocation value, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking of Precious Metals - Spot and Futures Prices: On May 7, London gold spot was at $3,391.69 per ounce, up 0.7% from May 6; London silver spot was at $33.04 per ounce, unchanged. COMEX gold was at $3,399.90 per ounce, up 0.7%, and COMEX silver was at $33.26 per ounce, unchanged. In the domestic market, AU2506 was at 801.04 yuan/gram, up 0.8%, and AG2506 was at 8,252 yuan/kg, up 0.2% [3]. - Price Spreads and Ratios: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price on May 7 was - 2.09 yuan/gram, down 4.6% from May 6. The spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 14 yuan/kg, down 12.5%. The spread of gold (TD - London) was 13.77 yuan/gram, up 6.3%, and the spread of silver (TD - London) was - 358 yuan/kg, down 4.6%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 97.07, up 0.6%, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 102.22, up 0.7% [3]. 2. Position and Inventory Data - Position Data: As of May 6, the gold ETF - SPDR was 937.95 tons, down 0.15% from May 5. For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the long position was 240,377 contracts, down 7.15%, and the short position was 77,059 contracts, down 7.73%, with a net long position of 163,318 contracts. For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the long position was 70,299 contracts, up 8.67%, the short position was 20,356 contracts, up 1.95%, and the net long position was 49,943 contracts, up 11.66% [3]. - Inventory Data: On May 7, SHFE gold inventory was 15,648 kg, unchanged from May 6, and SHFE silver inventory was 940,981 kg, down 1.96%. COMEX gold inventory was 40,607,507 ounces, down 0.69% compared to May 5, and COMEX silver inventory was 501,316,990 ounces, up 0.13% [3]. 3. Related Market Data - Other Market Indicators: On May 7, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 7.20, unchanged from May 6. The US dollar index was down 1.31%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was down 1.38%, the VIX was up 4.74%, the S&P 500 was down 0.53%, NYMEX crude oil was up 3.09%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was unchanged [4]. 4. Market News - Trade News: In March, the US trade deficit widened to $140.5 billion, a record high, and the service trade surplus dropped to the lowest level since April 2023 [4]. - Geopolitical News: India launched missiles at three locations in Pakistan, and the Pakistani military shot down two Indian Air Force fighter jets. The US and Yemen reached an agreement not to attack each other's ships [4]. - Sino - US Relations: China decided to have contact with the US, and Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent during his visit to Switzerland [4]. - Gold Reserve News: China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for six consecutive months. As of the end of April, China's gold reserves were 73.77 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month [4].