碳酸锂数据日报-20250508

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The downstream raw material inventory in the lithium industry is at a high level, with sufficient warehouse receipt inventory. In the short term, downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and the willingness to stock up has not increased. The social inventory continues to accumulate, resulting in a supply surplus situation [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 66,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton [1] - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 65,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2505 is 64,120 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.55% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2506 is 64,200 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.92% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2507 is 64,160 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.99% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 65,320 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.77% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 65,520 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.86% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton [1] - The average price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6500 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 31,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 146,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] - The difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 2490 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton [2] - The difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [2] - The difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 1120 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 132,033 tons, an increase of 169 tons [2] - The smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 51,033 tons, a decrease of 1367 tons [2] - The downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 45,169 tons, an increase of 2346 tons [2] - The other inventory (weekly, tons) is 35,831 tons, a decrease of 810 tons [2] - The registered warehouse receipt inventory (daily, tons) is 36,244 tons, an increase of 1008 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 70,422 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 4684 yuan/ton [3] - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 71,805 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 7653 yuan/ton [3] Downstream Sales - According to the comprehensive estimate of Passenger Federation data, the wholesale sales volume of new - energy passenger vehicle manufacturers in China in April was 1.14 million, with a year - on - year increase of 42% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The cumulative sales volume from January to April this year is estimated [3]