Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The market's interpretation of policy benefits is limited, and funds still focus on weak expectations. The black sector only showed a brief rebound, without substantially changing the market pattern. Although the spot market is okay, the expectations remain weak. The current high steel production corresponds to moderate demand, and the steel inventory is in a seasonal improvement phase, resulting in a situation of "good reality but poor expectations." [5] - The cost of coking coal continues to decline, and the coal and coke futures hit new lows. The second round of price increase for coke is temporarily put on hold, with a price cut expected in the middle and late May. The market sentiment is weak, and the coking coal auction has many failed bids. The coal and coke market is recommended to be shorted on rallies. [6][7] - The market's interpretation of the press conference on Wednesday is limited. The steel mill's molten iron output has significantly rebounded, and the short - term iron ore valuation is relatively low. However, due to the expectation of production restrictions, it is not recommended to hold long iron ore positions unilaterally, but positive spreads can be used to express views. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: On May 7, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3126 yuan/ton (+5, +0.16%), HC2601 at 3239 yuan/ton (+8, +0.25%), I2601 at 681 yuan/ton (+1, +0.15%), J2601 at 1550 yuan/ton (-9, -0.58%), and JM2601 at 951 yuan/ton (-13, -1.35%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3098 yuan/ton (+6, +0.088%), HC2510 at 3217 yuan/ton (+11, +0.34%), I2509 at 708 yuan/ton (+2.5, +0.35%), J2509 at 1507 yuan/ton (-10, -0.66%), and JM2509 at 908 yuan/ton (-7, -0.77%). [2] - Spreads: The cross - month spreads (RB2510 - 2601, HC2510 - 2601, I2509 - 2601, J2509 - 2601, JM2509 - 2601) on May 7 were - 28, - 22, 27, - 43, - 43 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 4, 6, 2, 5.5, 5 yuan/ton. The spreads/price ratios/profits on May 7 were: the coil - to - rebar spread was 119 yuan/ton (0 change), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.38 (+0.01), the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.66 (+0.01), the rebar disk profit was - 118.55 yuan/ton (+12.73), and the coking disk profit was 299.36 yuan/ton (+9.66). [2] Spot Market - Prices and Changes: On May 7, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3230, 3220, 3460 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 40, 30, 50 yuan/ton. The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3290, 3290, 3340 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 60, 50, 30 yuan/ton. Other spot prices and their changes are also provided in the report. [2] - Basis: On May 7, the basis for HC, RB, I, J, and JM were 73, 132, 69, 151.66, 102 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 39, 19, 0, - 5, - 6.5 yuan/ton. [2]
黑色金属数据日报-20250508
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-05-08 05:07