沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂5月检修产能或环增，国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250508

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to the uncertainty in the tariff negotiations between the US and China and the slowdown in the decline of China's electrolytic copper social inventory, copper prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended that investors short lightly on rallies in the short - term, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On May 7, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,790 yuan, up 190 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 132,768 lots, an increase of 49,254 lots; open interest was 179,103 lots, up 6,478 lots; inventory was 21,541 tons, a decrease of 3,381 tons. The SMW 1 computer copper +12 price was 78,580 yuan, up 390 yuan [2] - Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount: On May 7, 2025, the Shanghai copper basis was 790 yuan, up 200 yuan from the previous day; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was 220 yuan, up 40 yuan; in North China, it was - 60 yuan, down 30 yuan; in East China, it was 125 yuan, down 20 yuan [2] - Spread (Near - Month and Far - Month): On May 7, 2025, the spread between Shanghai copper near - month and continuous - first was 370 yuan, up 60 yuan; between continuous - first and continuous - second was 380 yuan, up 10 yuan; between continuous - second and continuous - third was 360 yuan, down 20 yuan [2] - London Copper: Data on May 6, 2025 showed that the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 0238; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 193,975 tons; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 21.75; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 149.74 [2] - COMEX Copper: On May 7, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.62, down 0.09 from May 5; the total inventory was 156,623 tons, an increase of 4,007 tons [2] Industry News - Port Incident: The Patache port's belt - conveyor terminal was damaged in a collision with a ship. Loading operations stopped two weeks ago, and repairs are expected to take at least 2 months. Collahuasi copper concentrate will be transported by road during the repair period, with no significant impact on shipments [2] - Chilean Copper Exports: In April 2025, Chile's copper exports were 160,660 tons, with 29,14 tons to China. Copper ore and concentrate exports were 1,040,756 tons, with 632,551 tons to China. Exports to China of both copper and copper ore dropped to over - one - year lows [2] Company News - Mine Production Changes: Antamina copper mine in Peru is gradually resuming production (2024 output: 927,000 metal tons); KGHM's Sierra Corda copper mine in Chile suspended production due to a worker's death (2024 output: 146,000 metal tons); a steel plant of Kazakhmys suspended production after a mine accident [4] - Project Updates: ACS - Metalstopes' fluidized copper ore expansion project will be put into production in Q1 2020, with an initial annual output of 26,000 tons; Freeport McMoRan in Indonesia was approved to export 1.27 million tons of copper concentrate in 6 months but will face higher export taxes; Jiangxi Copper's Ecuadorian mine's second - phase 160,000 - ton capacity may be put into production in H2 2025; Julong Copper Mine's second - phase 200,000 - ton/day expansion project may be completed by the end of 2025 [4] - Smelter News: Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile suspended production until May due to a furnace problem; Xanor Kakula copper smelter in Congo may be completed and put into production in June 2025, with an annual output of 500,000 tons of anode copper; Yimen Copper's new anode copper production increased from 100,000 to 150,000 tons on April 12; Jiangxi Copper's Jiangyuan second - phase 150,000 - ton cathode copper project started in Guixi; Jinchuan Group's second - phase 200,000 - ton intelligent circuit copper project produced the first batch of high - purity cathode copper in March [4] Downstream Market - Copper Rod: New orders and long - order executions of refined copper rod enterprises decreased, with production based on existing orders. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods increased, while that of recycled copper rods decreased. Raw material and finished - product inventories of both types of enterprises increased [4] - Other Downstream Industries: The capacity utilization rate of steel enterprises in China may increase in May. For copper - related downstream industries, the capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase, while that of copper wave - wrapped wire, copper plate - strip, steel pipe, and brass rod may decrease [4] Trading Strategy - Short lightly on rallies in the short - term, paying attention to support and resistance levels: Shanghai copper at 70,000/73,000 - 75,000 and 78,500 - 80,000; London copper at 8,700 - 8,900 and 9,600 - 9,800; US copper at 4.3 - 4.5 and 4.86/5.0 - 5.2 [4]