贵金属日评：美联储暂停降息并警示滞胀风险，中国央行连续六个月增持黄金-20250508

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Global central banks' expectations of interest rate cuts and fiscal easing, along with continuous gold purchases by multiple central banks and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, may make precious metal prices prone to rising and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Precious Metal Market Data - Gold: On May 7, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures active - contract closing price was 803.50, with a trading volume of 413,639.00 and an open interest of 127,407.00. The Shanghai spot gold (Au T + D) closing price was 792.87 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 65,320.00 and an open interest of 212,772.00. The COMEX gold futures active - contract closing price was 3372.60 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 275,912.00 and an open interest of - 2,384.00. The London gold spot price was 3392.25 dollars/ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF holding was 937.67 tons, and the iShare Gold ETF holding was 437.55 tons [1]. - Silver: The Shanghai silver futures active - contract closing price was 8252.00, with a trading volume of 537,686.00 and an open interest of 232,016.00. The Shanghai spot silver (Ag T + D) closing price was 8.00 yuan/kilogram, with a trading volume of 442,110.00 and an open interest of 3,542,778.00. The COMEX silver futures active - contract closing price was 33.22 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 53,799.00 and an open interest of 109,710.00. The London silver spot price was 33.23 dollars/ounce. The US iShare Silver ETF holding was 13,958.73 tons, and the Canadian PSLV Silver ETF holding was 5807.39 tons [1]. - Price Ratios: The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 97.37, the ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 100.18, and the ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 103.19 [1]. 2. Important Information - Macroeconomic and Policy: The Fed paused interest rate cuts again, warning of stagflation risks and reiterating increased "uncertainty". Powell said not to rush to cut interest rates. China's foreign exchange reserves in April increased by 1.27% month - on - month, and the central bank has been increasing gold holdings for six consecutive months. The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, and the CBO predicted that the Treasury's funds might be exhausted between August and October, which would slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The Trump administration planned to cut the 2026 fiscal budget by 183 billion dollars. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, and may cut interest rates 2 - 3 more times by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut interest rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025. The market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates around July [1]. - Geopolitical: If the EU's negotiation with the US fails, it is prepared to impose retaliatory tariffs on Boeing aircraft [1]. 3. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3150 - 3250 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 750 - 780 and the resistance level is around 850 - 900. For London silver, the support level is around 28 - 30 and the resistance level is around 35 - 36; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 7400 - 7800/8000 and the resistance level is around 8600 - 8900 [1].