有色商品日报-20250508

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper weakened with a 1.2% decline to $9,406/ton, and SHFE copper dropped 0.74% to CNY 77,450/ton. The Fed paused rate - cuts, boosting the dollar and suppressing non - ferrous metals. However, with an improving macro - outlook and strong copper demand since April leading to rapid inventory drawdown, there is no strong reason to be bearish on copper. Copper prices are expected to reach CNY 78,000 - 80,000/ton. Attention should be paid to downstream acceptance at high prices and inventory performance in late May [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina and沪铝 (SHFE aluminum) both trended weakly. Alumina may rebound slightly after the holiday driven by electrolytic aluminum, but will continue to be in an oversupply situation. Aluminum ingot de - stocking is slowing, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider bottom - fishing in stages [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.38% to $15,630/ton, and SHFE nickel dropped 0.35% to CNY 123,640/ton. Stainless steel prices will oscillate with cost support at the bottom and demand constraints at the top. Short - term nickel ore is relatively strong, but if primary nickel inventory continues to accumulate, it will put pressure on nickel prices [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - Copper: LME copper prices fell, and SHFE copper also declined. The Fed's pause in rate - cuts affected the market, but strong demand and inventory drawdown supported prices. The expected price range is CNY 78,000 - 80,000/ton [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina and SHFE aluminum prices were weak. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and aluminum ingot demand is waning [1][2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices declined. Stainless steel prices will oscillate, and primary nickel inventory accumulation may pressure nickel prices [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Market prices showed some changes, with inventory adjustments in different exchanges. For example, LME inventory decreased by 1,650 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts dropped by 3,381 tons [1][3]. - Lead: Most prices remained stable, with minor changes in some indicators like lead ingot discounts [3]. - Aluminum: Prices of aluminum products changed, and inventory also adjusted. Alumina inventory increased by 43,000 tons on a weekly basis [3][4]. - Nickel: Nickel - related prices and inventory had some fluctuations, such as a decrease in SHFE nickel warehouse receipts by 416 tons [2][4]. - Zinc: Prices declined slightly, and inventory increased in some areas. For example, social inventory increased by 0.34 million tons on a weekly basis [5]. - Tin: The main settlement price increased by 0.6%, and inventory decreased in some cases [5]. Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [7][8][9]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [12][16][18]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [19][21][23]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [24][26][29]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series [30][32][35]. - Smelting Profit: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin [37][39][42]. Non - Ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A senior researcher in non - ferrous metals and precious metals at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience [44]. - Wang Heng: A non - ferrous metals researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [44]. - Zhu Xi: A non - ferrous metals researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly researching lithium and nickel [45].