工业硅、多晶硅日报-20250508

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On May 7, polysilicon showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The main contract 2506 closed at 35,520 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 3.14%. The position increased by 9,467 lots to 63,290 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon material price was 40,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon material was also 40,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract widened to 4,980 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The main contract 2506 closed at 8,290 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.96%. The position increased by 3,246 lots to 18,280 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,617 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 8,550 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 205 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, traders cleared their inventories and pressured prices, and the downstream's willingness to stock up was lower than in previous years. After the holiday, the downstream demand still faced the pressure of a slowdown. In the short term, industrial silicon was difficult to break away from the bottom-finding rhythm due to the negative feedback from the downstream. For polysilicon, opportunities for the convergence of the spread between near and far months could be considered. Attention should be paid to whether new large-scale infrastructure or mandatory photovoltaic installation assessment policies would be introduced after the decline of distributed photovoltaics, which might trigger an oversold rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - On May 7, polysilicon and industrial silicon both showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The downstream demand was weak, and industrial silicon was in a bottom-finding rhythm. Opportunities for the convergence of the spread between near and far months of polysilicon could be considered. Attention should be paid to relevant policies that might trigger an oversold rebound [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions generally declined, with the largest decline of 100 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed by 75 yuan/ton [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 890 yuan/ton. The spot prices of N-type polysilicon material, dense material, and cauliflower material remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained unchanged, and the spot premium increased by 890 yuan/ton [4]. - Organic Silicon: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton [4]. - Downstream Products: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [4]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 2,860 tons, the factory warehouse inventory decreased by 5,900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 7,900 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 10, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 60,000 tons, the factory warehouse inventory increased by 0,800 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0,800 tons [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices: Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][8][12]. - Downstream Product Prices: Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15][17][19]. - Inventory: Charts show the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][26]. - Cost and Profit: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [29][31][38].