农产品日报-20250508

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillation [2] - Soybean Meal: Oscillation [2] - Oils: Weak [2] - Eggs: Oscillation [2] - Pigs: Oscillation [3] Core Views - Corn: On Wednesday, the main corn 2507 contract rose first and then fell. After the May Day holiday, the corn futures price soared again, which may support the spot market. The supply of corn in the Northeast production area is limited, and prices are rising. In the North China region, corn prices continue to rise. Affected by the increase in production area prices, traders in the sales area are more inclined to hold prices, but high - price transactions are average. Enterprises are increasing their purchases of wheat as a substitute. Technically, both futures and spot prices of corn are strong [2]. - Soybean Meal: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to trade tensions and weak demand. The dry weather in the Midwest is conducive to soybean sowing. It is estimated that the US soybean production in the 25/26 season will increase by 1% to 117 million tons. Brazil's soybean production in May is expected to be 12.6 million tons. In the domestic market, the spot price of soybean meal remains weak. The operation rhythm of oil mills varies by region. Funds are flowing back into the futures market, waiting for the results of the talks. The operation strategy is mainly based on oscillation, and the 9 - 1 positive spread should be held [2]. - Oils: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil fell for the seventh consecutive day due to concerns about increased production and weak demand from major consumers. US soybean oil prices declined, following the drop in US soybeans and crude oil. Canadian rapeseed prices rose, but the market fluctuated before the statistics report. It is estimated that the Canadian rapeseed production in the 25/26 season will be 18.2 million tons, a 2.1% increase year - on - year. In the domestic market, palm oil prices continued to decline, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices were relatively strong. The strategy is to participate in the short - term [2]. - Eggs: On Wednesday, egg futures fluctuated and adjusted. Affected by the current position - limit system, the main egg contract needs to shift positions. The spot price of eggs decreased. Considering the negative impact of the upcoming rainy season on demand and the increasing supply, egg prices are likely to decline. However, if egg prices fall, the number of culled chickens may increase, which could relieve future supply pressure. After closing short positions, investors should wait and see, and pay attention to the impact of feed raw material prices and farmers' culling intentions on egg prices [2] - Pigs: On Wednesday, the September pig contract fluctuated upwards. The spot price of pigs in Henan slightly increased. Technically, the bottom of the pig price is rising, and the increase in feed raw material prices supports the pig price, which is expected to remain strong [3] Summary by Directory Market Information - The People's Bank of China announced the re - loan and re - discount interest rates. The 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year agricultural and small - business support re - loan interest rates are 1.2%, 1.4%, and 1.5% respectively. The financial stability re - loan interest rate is 1.75%, and the interest rate during the extension period is 3.77%. The re - discount interest rate is 1.75% [4] - Analyst Dorab Mistry predicts that from June to November, the trading price of Malaysian palm oil futures will be 3,500 ringgit per ton, and palm oil inventory will start to accumulate due to continuous production recovery [4] - Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9 - 12 and hold talks with the US. The talks are held at the request of the US, and China's stance against the US's abuse of tariffs remains unchanged [4] - Reuters predicts that the average US soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be 4.338 billion bushels, with an estimated range of 4.3 - 4.4 billion bushels [4] - Since May, imported Brazilian soybeans in China have been cleared through customs and entering factories. The operating rate of oil mills is expected to recover rapidly, with the weekly soybean crushing volume expected to reach 1.75 million tons this week and over 2 million tons in the middle and late May [5] Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report presents contract spreads such as corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, soybeans 9 - 1, soybean meal 9 - 1, soybean oil 9 - 1, palm oil 9 - 1, eggs 9 - 1, and pigs 9 - 1 [6][7][9] - Contract Basis: The report shows contract basis including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [15][16][22]