碳酸锂日报-20250508

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures 2507 contract dropped 1.99% to 64,160 yuan/ton yesterday. Spot prices of various lithium products also declined, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,008 tons to 36,244 tons [3]. - On the supply side, under low - price pressure, upstream producers have started to cut production. The weekly output is 14,483 tons, a 3 - ton decrease compared to the previous 7 - day period. The overall supply in May is expected to decline month - on - month, but there are still projects in the ramping - up and commissioning process, and the costs of mines/integrated projects have decreased significantly. On the demand side, the expected output of lithium iron phosphate in May will increase by 4.5% to 276,150 tons, and the output of ternary materials will increase by 3% to 63,745 tons. The daily consumption of lithium carbonate has increased by 1% month - on - month. Downstream players have some actions of replenishing inventory at low prices, but the actual purchasing power will be limited due to the continuously increasing inventory levels. The overall social inventory is still accumulating, and whether the inventory inflection point has arrived remains to be observed [3]. - With lithium prices continuously falling to the lowest levels in recent years and a weak supply - demand pattern, if there is no large - scale production cut, the outlook for prices is still pessimistic [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 1,100 yuan/ton to 64,160 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased by 980 yuan/ton to 64,120 yuan/ton. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) dropped by 17 US dollars/ton to 750 US dollars/ton, and the prices of various lithium ores and lithium salts also showed different degrees of decline [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 1,650 yuan/ton, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton to 410 yuan/ton [5]. - Other products: The prices of some products such as ternary precursors and lithium hexafluorophosphate also changed. For example, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 550 yuan/ton to 54,950 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other lithium products during the same period [9][10][11]. - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between different lithium products, such as the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate [16][17]. - Precursor & cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium [21][22][24]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries [30][31][32]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from September 2024 to April 2025 [35][36][37]. - Production costs: Charts present the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, and 外购锂辉石精矿 [39][40].