苏轴股份（430418）：滚针轴承国产替代加速，布局机器人打造新增长曲线

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic needle bearing market, benefiting from accelerated domestic substitution and actively expanding into the robotics sector, which is expected to become a new growth driver [6][7]. - The company has established stable partnerships with renowned domestic and international enterprises, contributing to steady revenue growth [6][14]. - The report anticipates significant revenue growth driven by the automotive sector and the increasing demand for robotics, with projected revenues of 8.01 billion, 8.98 billion, and 10.08 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.9%, 12.1%, and 12.3% [7][8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 7.15 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4%, and net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.51 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 21.3% [2][26]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.24 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 33 [2][7]. - The company's gross margin is expected to be 36.7% in 2025, slightly declining over the forecast period, while return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 17.6% [2][7]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is recognized as a "small giant" in the domestic needle bearing industry, with a strong focus on high-end products and a significant market share in the automotive sector [6][14]. - The report highlights the company's competitive edge due to its established customer relationships and high inventory turnover rates, which are among the highest in comparable companies [6][7]. - The company is actively pursuing opportunities in the robotics market, where needle bearings are critical components, indicating a strategic shift towards high-value applications [6][7][8]. Industry Overview - The global needle bearing market is dominated by foreign brands, with a concentration ratio (CR3) exceeding 40%, but the domestic market is experiencing rapid growth due to increased demand from the automotive and robotics sectors [6][40]. - The report notes that the domestic needle bearing market is expected to reach approximately 47.22 billion yuan in 2024, with a robust growth outlook driven by the automotive industry's recovery and the rise of new energy vehicles [6][8]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing trend of domestic substitution in high-end bearings, with a focus on enhancing its technological capabilities to compete with international players [6][43].