尿素早评：尿素偏强震荡-20250508

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The urea futures showed a relatively strong oscillation in the previous trading day. Due to the uncertainty of export policy changes in the short - term, two scenarios are considered. If export is confirmed to be liberalized, the domestic urea price may rise above 2000 yuan/ton; if export remains restricted, the price increase will likely be reversed in the short - term, but there is support at the 1700 yuan/ton level. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and monitor the export policy [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Urea Futures Prices - UR01 in Shandong closed at 1781 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan or 0.78% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1912 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.21%; UR09 closed at 1886 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.27% [1]. Spot Prices - In the domestic market, spot prices in various regions increased. For example, in Shanxi, it rose 30 yuan to 1850 yuan/ton (1.65%); in Henan, it rose 10 yuan to 1900 yuan/ton (0.53%); in Hebei, it rose 20 yuan to 1920 yuan/ton (1.05%) [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 14 yuan to - 12 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 10 yuan to - 131 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - Upstream, the prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively. Downstream, the prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained stable, while the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu increased [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1900 yuan/ton, the highest was 1904 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1869 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1886 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1884 yuan/ton. The position was 256052 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and continue to monitor the export policy [1].