申万期货品种策略日报：贵金属-20250508

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. After the Fed's interest rate decision, U.S. stocks, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields declined, while gold rose slightly. Traders still expect the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year before July [4]. - Gold continued to be strong, while silver oscillated weakly. Concerns about tariff increases and geopolitical conflicts, along with central bank gold - buying demand, supported the gold price. The market is concerned about the scale of tariff escalation, and future economic data may show a more obvious stagflation trend [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - For gold futures (沪金2506, 沪金2512), the current prices are 800.20 and 806.68 respectively, with daily increases of 0.68% and 0.79%. For silver futures (沪银2506, 沪银2512), the current prices are 8146.00 and 8222.00 respectively, with daily decreases of 1.08% and 1.01% [2]. Spot Market - The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T+D, London Gold, and London Gold (in dollars per ounce) were 792.87, 796.45, and 3431.105 respectively, with daily increases of 1.72%, 5.25%, and 5.88%. The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Silver T+D and London Silver (in dollars per ounce) were 8221.00 and 33.21 respectively, with daily increases of 0.71% and 3.78% [2]. Inventory - The current values of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory (in kilograms, daily), Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory (in kilograms, daily), COMEX gold inventory (daily), and COMEX silver inventory (daily) are 15,648, 959,785, 40,607,507, and 501,316,990 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the changes are 0, 96.00, -281,064.04, and 673016 respectively [2]. Related Derivatives - The current values of the spdr gold ETF holdings (in tons), SLV silver ETF holdings (in tons), CFTC speculators' net positions (silver), and CFTC speculators' net positions (gold) are 44315, 44315, 33486, and 32895 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the changes are 1.00, 1.00, 481, and -1451 respectively [2]. Macroeconomic News - The Fed can be patient and does not need to rush to cut interest rates. Tariffs are the main factor driving inflation expectations. The impact of tariffs has been much greater than expected. If tariffs increase significantly as announced, there will be higher inflation and lower employment [4]. - The U.S. Vice - President hopes that the European market will open to U.S. goods. The EU will announce details of counter - measures against U.S. tariffs if the negotiation fails [4]. - Due to concerns about U.S. tariffs on imported drugs, pharmaceutical manufacturers are hoarding large amounts of inventory. In March, U.S. drug imports increased by $20 billion [5].