申万期货品种策略日报：国债-20250508

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On May 7, the central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 335.3 billion yuan due to 530.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. Starting from May 8, the central bank adjusted the 7 - day reverse repurchase operation rate from 1.50% to 1.40%, and announced a series of monetary policy adjustments including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the deposit - reserve ratio and interest rate cuts for various policy tools. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged, and the economic outlook uncertainty increased. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year. The real estate market shows signs of improvement, with increased real estate loan balances and growing investment value recognized by some international investment institutions. The short - term market interest rates generally declined, and the yields of key - term Chinese and overseas government bonds changed differently. The short - end government bond futures prices are expected to be supported by the loose market funds, while the long - end government bond futures prices may fluctuate more if the tariff negotiation makes progress [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Volume: On the previous trading day, government bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2506 contract fell 0.18%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed. The open interest of some contracts decreased, while that of others increased. The cross - period spreads of some contracts also changed [2]. - IRR: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main government bond futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - Short - term Market Interest Rates: On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates generally declined. For instance, the SHIBOR 7 - day rate dropped 4.6bp, the DR007 rate dropped 4.19bp, and the GC007 rate dropped 5.8bp [2]. - Chinese Key - term Government Bond Yields: The yields of key - term Chinese government bonds changed differently. The 10Y government bond yield rose 1.76bp to 1.65%, and the long - short (10 - 2) government bond yield spread was 15.26bp [2]. - Overseas Key - term Government Bond Yields: The 10Y US government bond yield dropped 4bp, the 10Y German government bond yield dropped 1bp, and the 10Y Japanese government bond yield rose 3.5bp [2]. Macroeconomic News - Central Bank Operations: The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, adjusted the reverse repurchase operation rate, cut the deposit - reserve ratio, and lowered various policy interest rates to support the real economy [3]. - Real Estate Market: In the first quarter, real estate loan balances increased, and the investment value of the Chinese real estate market is gradually emerging. The financial regulatory authorities will improve relevant financing systems to support the real estate market [3]. - Fed Policy: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged, and the economic outlook uncertainty increased. The market expects interest rate cuts [3]. - US - EU Trade: The US - EU trade negotiation is progressing slowly, and the EU may announce counter - measures if the negotiation fails [3]. Market Comment and Strategy - The short - end government bond futures prices are expected to be supported by the loose market funds, while the long - end government bond futures prices may fluctuate more if the tariff negotiation makes progress. The central bank may increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation according to the economic and financial situation [3].