申银万国期货早间策略-20250508

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The policies announced at the press conference can significantly boost market confidence in the future, and A - shares have risen significantly. It is believed that the stock index is likely to choose a direction in the short - term and experience a relatively long - lasting trend. The wide - straddle option buying strategy is more suitable for trading [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3817.20, 3785.00, 3725.80, and 3695.00 respectively, with increases of 20.80, 19.20, 17.40, and 16.00. The trading volumes were 28654.00, 56105.00, 12210.00, and 3405.00, and the open interest changes were - 707.00, 3041.00, 1900.00, and 1341.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2664.80, 2646.40, 2614.00, and 2611.00 respectively, with increases of 20.00, 17.40, 16.80, and 17.80. The trading volumes were 14757.00, 29460.00, 5485.00, and 1256.00, and the open interest changes were 1979.00, 2066.00, 834.00, and 442.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 5718.20, 5620.20, 5482.60, and 5386.00 respectively, with increases of 14.00, 0.80, - 1.00, and 0.20. The trading volumes were 31807.00, 54572.00, 14860.00, and 4699.00, and the open interest changes were - 27.00, 2968.00, 3257.00, and 1616.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 6059.60, 5953.20, 5774.00, and 5640.00 respectively, with increases of 144.80, 139.20, 133.80, and 129.40. The trading volumes were 38439.00, 107389.00, 21597.00, and 7833.00, and the open interest changes were - 771.00, 6886.00, - 64.00, and 2572.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 32.20, - 18.40, - 98.00, and - 106.40 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 31.40, - 16.20, - 83.60, and - 104.00 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 3831.63, 2670.70, 5740.33, and 6111.49 respectively, with increases of 0.61, 0.87, 1.93, and 0.14. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 161.17, 47.06, 162.77, and 233.92, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 2860.11, 806.55, 2170.60, and 2965.22 [1] - Industry Indexes: Different industries in the CSI 300 index had different changes. For example, the energy, raw materials, and industrial sectors had increases of 1.05%, 0.57%, and 1.11% respectively, while the information technology sector had a decrease of - 0.34% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) relative to the CSI 300 index were - 14.43, - 46.63, - 105.83, and - 136.63 respectively [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts relative to the SSE 50 index were - 5.90, - 24.30, - 56.70, and - 59.70 respectively [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts relative to the CSI 500 index were - 32.09, - 130.09, - 267.69, and - 364.29 respectively [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts relative to the CSI 1000 index were - 46.29, - 156.29, - 337.49, and - 471.49 respectively [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3342.67, 10104.13, 6294.55, and 1996.51 respectively, with increases of 0.80%, 0.22%, - 0.20%, and 0.51% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 22691.88, 36779.66, 5631.28, and 23115.96 respectively, with increases of 0.13%, - 0.14%, 0.43%, and - 0.58% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - Domestic Policies: Three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut, a 0.1 - percentage - point policy rate cut, and a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the structural monetary policy tool rate and the provident fund loan rate. The China Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, and the CSRC will support Central Huijin and introduce reform measures for the STAR Market and the ChiNext [2] - Reform of the Public Fund Industry: The CSRC issued an action plan to promote the high - quality development of public funds, aiming to guide the industry from "scale - oriented" to "return - oriented" [2] - US Federal Reserve: The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% unchanged. After the rate decision, US stocks, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields declined, while gold rose slightly. Traders still expect three rate cuts this year [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Real Estate: In the first quarter, the balance of real estate loans increased by more than 750 billion yuan, and the new individual housing loans reached the highest quarterly increase since 2022. The housing rental loans increased by 28% year - on - year. The approved "white - list" loans of commercial banks reached 6.7 trillion yuan [2] - New Energy Vehicles: In April, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.14 million, a 42% year - on - year increase. Tesla China's wholesale sales in April were 58,459, a 6% year - on - year decrease [2] - Finance: The China Financial Regulatory Administration approved the preparation of Xingyin Financial Asset Investment Co., Ltd. by Industrial Bank [2] 3.7 Stock Index Views - Market Performance: The US three major indexes rose. In the previous trading day, the stock index opened significantly higher, with the national defense and military industry and banking sectors leading the gains, and the media sector leading the losses. The total trading volume of the whole market was 1.51 trillion yuan [2] - Investment Strategy: It is recommended to use the wide - straddle option buying strategy for trading [2]