EIA周度报告点评-20250508

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The EIA report this week is relatively neutral. Although gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased, the increase was small and crude oil inventories declined more than expected. The refinery operating rate is gradually recovering, with good basic data. However, other demand in the industrial sector performed poorly, and inventories showed a seasonal increase, dragging down the positive impact of the report [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Data - As of May 2nd, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 438.376 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 2.032 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 800,000 barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 740,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 580,000 barrels [2]. - Gasoline inventories increased by 188,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels. Distillate inventories decreased by 1.107 million barrels, less than the expected decrease of 1.3 million barrels [2]. - U.S. crude oil production decreased by 98,000 barrels per day to 13.367 million barrels per day, and net imports increased by 673,000 barrels per day to 2.05 million barrels per day [3]. - The refinery processing volume decreased by 7,000 barrels per day to 16.071 million barrels per day, and the terminal apparent demand for crude oil (four - week smoothing) increased by 97,750 barrels per day to 19.756 million barrels per day [3]. Report Analysis - The refinery maintenance season this year, which is slightly longer than usual, may be gradually coming to an end as the weekly refinery operating rate has increased for the third consecutive week, rising 0.4% to 89.0% [4]. - The recent decline in U.S. crude oil production is mainly affected by falling oil prices. The average new - well operating cost of U.S. shale oil companies is WTK $5 per barrel [4]. - The unexpected increase in gasoline inventories may be due to the recent continuous decline in prices, which has boosted demand. Other refined product inventories, mainly industrial products, have continued to increase seasonally, consistent with their weak demand [6]. - The decline in oil prices last night was due to the smooth signal from the U.S. - Iran negotiations, which reduced the risk of Iranian crude oil supply disruption, and the Fed's statement of increased two - way risks, which lowered short - term risk appetite [8].