西南期货早间评论-20250508

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the relatively low current Treasury bond yields, the impact of tariffs, and the potential for repeated tariff adjustments, it is recommended to maintain a certain degree of caution [7][8]. - Despite concerns about the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and corporate profit growth, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [10][11]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [14]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand, valuation, and technical aspects, such as going long or short on certain contracts, or taking a wait - and - see approach [16][19][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in Treasury bond futures, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts down 0.62%, 0.19%, 0.08%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank carried out 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 7, with an operating rate of 1.50%, and there was a net withdrawal of 335.3 billion yuan on that day. The central bank adjusted the 7 - day reverse repurchase operating rate to 1.40% from May 8, cut the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points from May 15, and cut the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points from May 8 [7]. - The Fed's stance and tariff issues have an impact on the market. It is expected that the volatility will increase, and caution should be maintained [8][9]. Stock Index - The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. Financial regulators proposed measures to support the capital market, including expanding the pilot scope of long - term investment of insurance funds, adjusting solvency regulatory rules, and promoting a long - cycle assessment mechanism. The China Securities Regulatory Commission also took measures to stabilize the market [10]. - Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [11][12]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw a 0.79% increase in the gold main contract and a 0.21% increase in the silver main contract. China has increased its gold reserves for six consecutive months. The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and other factors are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [13][14]. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw weak oscillations in threaded steel and hot - rolled coil futures. The real - estate industry's downward trend suppresses the price of threaded steel, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and the downward space may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [16]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw oscillations in iron ore futures. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in imports and port inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high in the black - series varieties. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels [18][19]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw a slight decline in coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The demand for coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [21]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw a 0.39% decline in the manganese - silicon main contract and a 0.04% increase in the silicon - iron main contract. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to call - option opportunities for manganese - silicon and consider short - position exit opportunities for silicon - iron [23][24]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw a sharp increase in INE crude oil. News such as Kazakhstan's commitment to the OPEC+ agreement, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and the upcoming China - US talks are favorable for crude oil. It is recommended to take a long - position operation on the main crude - oil contract [25][26]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw a sharp increase in fuel oil following crude oil. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in Asia is showing signs of strengthening. The relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the expected signing of a tariff agreement and the decrease in Singapore's inventory are positive. It is recommended to take a long - position operation on the main fuel - oil contract [28]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw a 1.34% increase in the synthetic - rubber main contract. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost rebounds. It is expected to oscillate weakly [30][31]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw the natural - rubber main contract close flat and the 20 - rubber main contract rise 0.28%. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand may improve due to tariff changes. It is expected to oscillate weakly [33]. PVC - The previous trading day saw a 0.27% decline in the PVC main contract. The supply pressure eases marginally, and the demand recovers weakly. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35]. Urea - The previous trading day saw a 0.96% increase in the urea main contract. The approaching summer corn - fertilizer preparation period may not offset the supply elasticity. The potential Indian tender and domestic export - policy adjustment may affect the price. It is recommended to pay attention to export changes [38]. p - Xylene (PX) - The previous trading day saw a 2.81% increase in the PX2509 main contract. PX devices are under centralized maintenance, and the cost support is enhanced. It is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost, and it is recommended to operate in the low - price range [40][41]. PTA - The previous trading day saw a 2.48% increase in the PTA2509 main contract. The planned maintenance of PTA devices increases, and the cost is expected to improve. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to operate in the low - price range [42]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw a 1.55% increase in the ethylene - glycol main contract. The restart of coal - based ethylene - glycol devices is less than expected, and the inventory may decline slightly. It is recommended to participate cautiously at low levels [43][44]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day saw a 1.67% increase in the short - fiber 2506 main contract. The downstream demand is weak, and the cost is the main factor affecting the price. It is recommended to participate cautiously [45]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw a 1.69% increase in the bottle - chip 2506 main contract. The cost support is enhanced, and the supply and demand lack a driving force. It is expected to oscillate following the cost [46][47]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw a 0.90% decline in the 2509 main contract. In May, the number of maintenance devices increases, but the overall supply remains high. The export advantage is gradually established. It is recommended that short - position holders at low levels adjust their positions [49]. Glass - The previous trading day saw a 0.09% increase in the 2509 main contract. The production line is at a low level, and the actual supply - demand has no obvious driving force. The tariff adjustment and relevant financial policies may affect the market sentiment [50][51]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw a 0.76% increase in the 2509 main contract. Some devices will enter the maintenance period in May. The demand from alumina and non - aluminum downstream is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the device operation and liquid - chlorine price [52][53]. Pulp - The previous trading day saw a 1.26% increase in the 2507 main contract. The inventory continues to accumulate, the supply increases, and the market is in a weak pattern. The trading sentiment is poor [54][55]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw a 1.99% decline in the lithium - carbonate main contract. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory increases. It is expected to run weakly [57]. Copper - The previous trading day saw Shanghai copper rise first and then fall. Although the ICSG expects a surplus in refined - copper supply, the Sino - US talks may boost demand. It is recommended to take a long - position operation on the Shanghai copper main contract [58][59]. Tin - The previous trading day saw a 0.94% decline in Shanghai tin. The resumption of production in major mines eases the shortage pattern, and the impact of Sino - US trade on the downstream electronic - consumption market remains. It is expected to oscillate bearishly [61]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw a 0.35% decline in Shanghai nickel. The cost support is strong, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. The overall supply - demand is in a surplus pattern. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [62][63]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw industrial silicon and polysilicon continue to decline. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply decline is limited, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the start - up changes in the southwest region during the wet season and maintain a bearish view [64]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw a 0.03% decline in the soybean - meal main contract and a 0.44% increase in the soybean - oil main contract. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the upward pressure on soybean meal is high, and it is recommended to wait and see. The cost support for soybean oil at the bottom is enhanced, and it is recommended to pay attention to call - option opportunities [65][66]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil has been falling for seven consecutive days. The inventory may increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [67][69]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices are fluctuating. The production of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [70]. Cotton - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in domestic Zhengzhou cotton. The planting progress in the US and China is known, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The downstream demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [71][73]. Sugar - The previous trading day saw domestic Zhengzhou sugar oscillate weakly. Brazil is entering the production - acceleration period, and the sugar production in India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and it is recommended to wait and see [75][78]. Apples - The previous trading day saw a slight decline in domestic apple futures. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the sales are good. The new - year production is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait and see [80]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day saw the national average price of live pigs remain flat. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the consumption is in a short - term off - season. It is expected that the pig price will first weaken and then strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see [82][84]. Eggs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas. The egg - laying hen inventory is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase in May. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the reverse spread [85][86]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day saw a 0.25% increase in the corn main contract and a 0.26% increase in the corn - starch main contract. The supply of corn is expected to be in a slight surplus, and the demand is slowly recovering. The production and demand of corn starch are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [87][90]. Logs - The previous trading day saw a 0.44% increase in the 2507 main contract. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and it is entering the off - season. The inventory is relatively neutral, and the demand improvement is limited. The market is in a weak state [91][93].