早间看点：24／25年马棕产量预计为1900万吨，路透预计美豆25／26年期末库存为3.62亿蒲-20250508

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term palm oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to tariff policy changes, a sharp drop in international crude oil prices, and a marginal loosening of supply expectations in the producing areas [22][23]. - Short - term soybean prices in the US are expected to experience more volatile fluctuations. Although the US has postponed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on some countries, which may boost soybean prices, there are still significant uncertainties in US tariff and biodiesel policies, and the sowing of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is imminent [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and price changes of various commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil are presented. The US dollar index and exchange rates of multiple currencies also show corresponding price changes [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided. CNF premiums and quotes for soybean crushing in different regions are also given [2]. 3.3 Weather Forecast - From May 12th to May 16th, the temperature in the main soybean - producing states in the US is expected to be higher, and precipitation will significantly increase. The weather in the US Midwest is generally favorable, with improved planting progress and early growth conditions, but long - term dryness could be a problem [3][5]. 3.4 Production Forecasts - The estimated palm oil production in Malaysia for the 2024/25 season is 19 million tons, with an upward revision of less than 1% from the previous estimate, supported by a rebound in crop yields. The production in Indonesia for the 2024/25 season is expected to be 48.8 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous estimate. The production in Thailand for the 2024/25 season is expected to remain at 3.59 million tons, also unchanged from the previous estimate [6][8][9]. - Analysts predict that the US soybean production for the 2025/26 season will be 4.338 billion bushels, with an estimated ending inventory of 362 million bushels. The global ending inventory of soybeans for the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 126.02 million tons [9]. - The estimated rapeseed production in Canada for the 2025/26 season is 18.2 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous year, despite a decrease in planting area and unfavorable summer weather prospects [12]. 3.5 Export Forecasts - Anec expects Brazil to export 12.6 million tons of soybeans and 1.87 million tons of soybean meal in May. Imea predicts that the soybean exports from Mato Grosso in Brazil for the 2025/26 season will decrease by 4% compared to the previous year [10]. 3.6 Domestic Supply and Demand - On May 7th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 24,850 tons, a 293% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 378,700 tons, with an increase of 276,600 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 53.68%, a 5.73% increase from the previous day [14]. 3.7 Macro News - International News: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 80.2%. The US consumer credit increased in March. FOMC decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. The EIA strategic petroleum reserve and crude oil inventories in the US changed. The retail sales in the Eurozone in March had specific monthly and annual changes. Brazil's central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points [17][18][19]. - Domestic News: On May 7th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted downward. The Chinese central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and achieved a net withdrawal of funds. The central bank lowered the re - lending rate and the 7 - day reverse repurchase operation rate. China increased its gold reserves and foreign exchange reserves in April [21]. 3.8 Key Information Analysis - MPOB's March palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory increased by 3.52% to 1.563 million tons. The production, export, import, and consumption all changed compared to the previous month. The report's impact is neutral [22]. - USDA's April supply - demand report made adjustments to the US and Brazilian soybean supply - demand balance sheets. The report's impact is neutral, and US soybean prices may be more volatile in the short term [24]. 3.9 Capital Flows - On May 7th, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 1.425 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 11.301 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital inflow of 12.726 billion yuan [27]. 3.10 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.