BATIAN(SZ:002170) Guohai Securities·2025-05-08 08:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company, Baitian Co., is a leading domestic producer of nitrate phosphate fertilizers, with a focus on expanding its high-quality phosphate rock capacity and leveraging its integrated phosphate chemical industry layout in Guizhou [8][24] - The supply-demand situation for phosphate rock is expected to remain tight, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.85% for new phosphate rock capacity from 2024 to 2028, while demand is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 5.46% during the same period [9][60] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 5.3 billion, 6.4 billion, and 7.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and corresponding net profits of 1.22 billion, 1.64 billion, and 2.05 billion yuan [9][16] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Baitian Co. is recognized as a leading nitrate phosphate fertilizer producer in China, with a strong market position and competitive advantages in technology, brand, and market share [8][21] - The company has a phosphate rock resource reserve of approximately 63.92 million tons with an average grade of 26.74%, and plans to expand its phosphate rock production capacity from 200,000 tons per year to 290,000 tons per year [8][11] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is characterized by a slow expansion of capacity and a tight supply of high-grade phosphate rock resources, while the demand side is driven by the rigid demand for fertilizers and the growing need for phosphate in the new energy sector [9][60] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for phosphate rock, particularly in the context of food security and the rapid development of new energy vehicles [9][60] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company has shown a consistent upward trend in revenue and net profit from 2017 to 2024, with a notable increase in phosphate rock production and sales contributing to this growth [28][32] - The projected financial performance indicates a significant increase in both revenue and net profit over the next few years, with a strong focus on expanding phosphate rock production and enhancing operational efficiency [9][16][28]