瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250508

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is relatively sluggish, with the center of the spot transaction price continuing to decline. Downstream enterprises are waiting for further price drops, while upstream lithium salt factories have low willingness to sell due to losses. Traders have a strong willingness to sell. Overall, lithium carbonate is still in a stage of oversupply. The option market has a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows certain characteristics. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 64,280 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 21,487 lots, down 1732 lots; the position of the main contract is 267,396 lots, down 9504 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 740 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 36,244 lots, up 1008 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 65,250 yuan/ton, down 1400 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,600 yuan/ton, down 1400 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 970 yuan/ton, down 1520 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 775 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 7,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 1,936 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 43,180 tons, up 7490 tons; the monthly import volume is 18,125.49 tons, up 5797.53 tons; the monthly export volume is 220.03 tons, down 197.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 50%, up 8 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 118,300 MWh, up 18000 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 29,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 5.60 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 147,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 129,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 48%, up 8 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.33 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 57%, unchanged; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,277,000 vehicles, up 389000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,237,000 vehicles, up 345000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 41.16%, up 0.85 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and the year - on - year increase is 3,075,000 vehicles, up 985000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 15.80 million vehicles, up 2.70 million vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and the year - on - year increase is 44.10 million vehicles, up 13.40 million vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 14.82%, down 2.04 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 15.31%, up 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 144,258 contracts, up 14958 contracts; the total put position is 51,775 contracts, up 3584 contracts; the total position put - call ratio is 35.89%, down 1.3801 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.24%, up 0.0022 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to the preliminary monthly data of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in April are estimated to be 1.14 million, a year - on - year increase of 42% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The cumulative wholesale from January to April this year is estimated to be 4 million, a year - on - year increase of 42%. In March, the total import and export volume of automobile products was 23.82 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 32.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. The import amount was 3.67 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 3.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.4%; the export amount was 20.15 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 38.9% and a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. 86% of German enterprises in China were affected by the tariff trade war, with the proportions in the machinery and automotive industries reaching 86% and 93% respectively. Three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced ten policy measures, and the financial regulatory authority and the CSRC also launched relevant policies [2].