瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250508

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Agricultural demand is gradually increasing, export policies are becoming clearer, and port - collection demand will rise. Some traders have port - collection plans. Industrial demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The compound fertilizer in Northeast China is in the final stage, and enterprises are digesting inventory and entering the maintenance stage. However, as the summer replenishment time shortens, the compound fertilizer shipping atmosphere is expected to improve, and the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to rebound. Due to sufficient pre - holiday orders at urea factories and the influence of export news on the market, the trading center has shifted upward, and the downstream提货 speed has improved, driving the reduction of urea enterprise inventory this week. Short - term urea enterprise inventory may show a stable decline. It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1830 - 1900 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is 96 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 266,569 lots, an increase of 10,517 lots; the net position of the top 20 is 5,465 lots, a decrease of 731 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 4,970 pieces, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui increased by 20, 10, 20, 20 yuan/ton respectively, while that in Shandong remained unchanged. The main contract basis is 18 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton. FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained unchanged at 354 US dollars/ton and 260.5 US dollars/ton respectively [3]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 11.8 million tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons; enterprise inventory is 106.56 million tons, a decrease of 12.61 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 86.77%, an increase of 3.16 percentage points; the daily output is 200,100 tons, an increase of 7,300 tons. The export volume is 0, unchanged. The monthly output is 6,087,080 tons, an increase of 610,930 tons [3]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 40.6%, a decrease of 2.94 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 75.16%, an increase of 9.74 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 254 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 58 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 6.8383 million tons, an increase of 1.5092 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32,490 tons, a decrease of 1,070 tons [3]. 3.5 Industry News - As of May 7, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 106.56 million tons, a decrease of 12.61 million tons from last week, a year - on - year decrease of 10.58%. As of May 8, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 13.3 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.71%. As of May 8, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.41 million tons, an increase of 0.0093 million tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 0.66%; the weekly average daily output was 201,400 tons, an increase of 0.0013 million tons from last week; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 87.35%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points from the previous period, and the upward trend continues [3]. 3.6 Suggestions - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday. The UR2509 contract is recommended to be traded in the range of 1830 - 1900 yuan/ton [3][4].