5月FOMC点评：联储降息时点或偏晚

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed's interest rate cut may be delayed. The current monetary policy has a strong wait - and - see attitude, and a "slow - then - fast" interest rate cut path is more likely. The Fed will dynamically adjust based on the latest "hard data" such as labor and inflation [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents FOMC Statement and Press Conference - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25 - 4.5% in the May FOMC meeting, in line with market expectations. Economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace, but the uncertainty of the economic outlook has increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have risen. The current monetary policy is wait - and - see, and the interest rate cut path may be "slow - then - fast" [2]. - Powell said that the current data does not show a significant impact of tariffs on the economy. The Fed will comprehensively consider sentiment data and actual economic data. The current policy is in a good state and can wait for the situation to become clearer before making a decision. The Fed will balance employment and inflation goals, and the decision - making is complex and challenging [3][4]. Market Reaction - After the FOMC statement was released, the US Treasury yields dropped, the US dollar plunged, and the US stocks fell. After the press conference, the US Treasury yields rose, and the US stocks rebounded. After Trump announced the cancellation of global chip restrictions, the US stocks rose, the US Treasury yields fell, and the US dollar strengthened. As of the close, the 2 - year US Treasury yield dropped 1.24bp to 3.77%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 2.52bp to 4.267%, COMEX gold fell 1.47%, the US dollar index rose 0.64% to 99.90, and the three major US stock indexes all closed higher [6]. Follow - up Policy - The Fed's dual mission of employment and inflation is challenged under the influence of tariffs. The Fed will rely on actual data rather than forecasts, which means the interest rate cut may be late. - The US is in a state of weakening soft - landing and resilient hard data. The relationship between soft and hard data is the key to understanding the US fundamentals. Soft data shows a large stagflation risk, but hard data such as unemployment and private consumption remain resilient. - Tariffs may cause a one - time impact on prices, but if they lead to a significant increase in inflation expectations, it may trigger self - fulfilling inflation. - The earliest possible time for the first interest rate cut this year is July. If there is no rapid deterioration in employment data in the next two months, September or later may be the time for the first interest rate cut [8][9]. Asset Allocation Implications - US Treasuries: They are in an awkward period, and the yield curve may flatten in the future. In the next quarter, they will face inflation impulses and supply pressure after the debt limit is raised, and the interest rate cut expectations may decline. If inflation is a one - time shock, the short - end US Treasury yields may have a higher upward risk, and the long - end is more affected by supply - demand disturbances [10]. - US Stocks: The softening of tariff policies has repaired market sentiment, and the US stocks have returned to the level before the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2. In the short term, the capital situation is slightly favorable, and listed company earnings are generally not weak. In the medium - to - long - term, the US fundamentals may decline further under the impact of tariffs, and the late interest rate cut and the resistance to tax - cut policies may lead to downward revisions of corporate earnings [10]. - US Dollar: Multiple factors have led to the continuous weakening of the US dollar, and it may depreciate in the long - term. Most Asian currencies have appreciated significantly against the US dollar, and short - term volatility may remain high [11].