半导体行业2024年报、2025年一季报业绩综述：AI驱动算力、终端齐飞，设备、材料自主可控强化

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor sector, driven by AI demand recovery and ongoing domestic substitution trends [5]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry has entered a recovery phase since the second half of 2023, with revenue and net profit growth expected to continue into 2024 and Q1 2025 [5][23]. - The overall revenue for the semiconductor sector in 2024 is projected to reach CNY 602.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.10%, with net profit expected to be CNY 35.34 billion, up 12.82% [13]. - In Q1 2025, the sector is anticipated to generate revenue of CNY 128.13 billion, reflecting a 14.35% year-on-year growth, and net profit of CNY 7.90 billion, a 28.75% increase [13]. Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - The semiconductor sector is experiencing an overall upward trend, with both revenue and net profit showing year-on-year growth for 2024 and Q1 2025 [5][13]. - The first quarter of 2025, typically a slow season, is expected to show resilience due to strong demand for computing chips and recovering consumer chip demand [5][23]. Subsector Performance 1. Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment sector is benefiting from ongoing domestic substitution, with 2024 revenue projected at CNY 71.85 billion, a 38.59% increase, and net profit at CNY 12.18 billion, up 22.76% [24]. - In Q1 2025, revenue is expected to reach CNY 17.88 billion, a 33.38% increase, with net profit of CNY 2.57 billion, up 24.12% [24]. 2. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is projected to achieve revenue of CNY 40.94 billion in 2024, a 12.46% increase, but net profit is expected to decline by 23.90% to CNY 2.03 billion [41]. - In Q1 2025, revenue is anticipated to be CNY 10.41 billion, a 10.93% increase, with net profit expected to rise by 40.35% to CNY 0.67 billion [41]. 3. Digital Chip Design - The digital chip design sector is expected to see revenue of CNY 149.20 billion in 2024, a 28.17% increase, and net profit of CNY 13.60 billion, up 213.62% [53]. - In Q1 2025, revenue is projected at CNY 37.97 billion, a 20.27% increase, with net profit of CNY 3.26 billion, up 20.59% [53]. 4. Analog Chip Design - The analog chip design sector is showing signs of recovery, particularly in industrial and automotive applications, with revenue growth expected in the second half of 2024 [5]. 5. Semiconductor Packaging and Testing - The semiconductor packaging and testing sector is expected to show steady revenue growth, with major companies reporting improved performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 [5]. 6. Discrete Devices - The discrete devices sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with Q1 2025 profits expected to rebound due to improved demand from the automotive sector [5]. 7. Integrated Circuit Manufacturing - The integrated circuit manufacturing sector is projected to see a revenue increase of 15.89% in 2025, but net profit is expected to decline by 36.39% due to rising costs and competitive pressures [5][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong growth potential, such as semiconductor equipment, materials, AI computing, and AI terminal chips, given the clear trends of AI penetration and domestic substitution [5].