中美关税博弈专题系列（一）：解码中美关税战对中国经济和重点行业的冲击与重塑

Group 1: Trade War Overview - The U.S. has implemented an average tariff of approximately 135% on Chinese imports, with some products facing tariffs as high as 245%[5][12]. - The trade conflict has escalated since 2025, with the U.S. increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, including a 34% tariff that was later raised to 125%[5][6]. - China's response has included reciprocal tariffs and negotiations with other countries to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs[6][7]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The optimistic scenario predicts a 2.5% reduction in exports, while the neutral and pessimistic scenarios forecast reductions of 7.0% and 14.7%, respectively[15][20]. - The net export impact on GDP growth is estimated to be a drag of 0.3% in the optimistic case, 0.9% in the neutral case, and around 2% in the pessimistic case[15][20]. - Employment in export-related sectors, particularly labor-intensive industries, is expected to be significantly affected, with 1.8 million jobs tied to imports and exports[16][17]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Effects - The textile and light industry sectors are particularly vulnerable, with high dependency on the U.S. market and low profit margins[19][23]. - The chemical industry may face indirect impacts due to its reliance on downstream sectors like textiles and home appliances, despite direct tariff effects being limited[26]. - The automotive sector is undergoing a strategic restructuring, with parts suppliers facing significant pressure from tariff-induced order losses and profit margin compression[4][25]. Group 4: Policy Responses - The Chinese government is expected to implement monetary and fiscal policies to counteract the economic slowdown caused by tariffs, including potential interest rate cuts and increased public spending[15][18]. - Ongoing negotiations and tariff exemptions for certain high-dependency products, such as electronics, indicate a potential for easing tensions in specific sectors[7][10].