Tai Ping Yang Zheng Quan·2025-05-08 10:43Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical raw materials sector, highlighting a significant profit growth in Q1 and an expected improvement in industry supply and demand dynamics [3][4]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical raw materials sector experienced a revenue of CNY 1176.77 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.74%, with a net profit of CNY 150.46 billion, reflecting a growth of 27.89% [3][4][21]. - In Q1 2025, the sector's revenue was CNY 295.46 billion, a slight decline of 0.48% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 20.87% to CNY 45.62 billion [3][4][21]. - The report emphasizes that the rapid profit growth is attributed to several factors, including a low base in H2 2023, the end of inventory destocking by global downstream manufacturers, and improved product pricing stability [3][4][21][23]. Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - The raw materials sector's revenue was stable year-on-year, with a slight decline in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year, while profits showed significant growth [3][4][21]. - The sector's gross margin improved to 38.14% in Q1 2025, up 1.76 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin reached 15.41%, an increase of 2.63 percentage points [4][25]. Industry Concentration - The top 10 companies in the raw materials sector contributed over 73% of total revenue in 2024, with significant contributions from companies like New and Cheng and Pro Pharmaceutical [31][33]. - In Q1 2025, the top 10 companies accounted for 73.19% of total revenue, indicating a slight decrease in concentration compared to the previous year [33][34]. Valuation and Construction Projects - The report notes that the valuation of the raw materials sector remains at historical lows, with a PE ratio of 30.26x at the end of 2024 and 33.97x at the end of Q1 2025 [5][42]. - The total construction projects in the sector decreased to CNY 163.57 billion by Q1 2025, reflecting a decline of 4.31% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in capacity expansion [9][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong performance certainty in the formulation and CDMO sectors, such as Aorite and Pro Pharmaceutical, as well as those with significant new product contributions [10][38]. - It highlights the potential for increased demand for raw materials due to the expiration of patents for top-selling small molecule drugs in the coming years [6][42].