Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - Geely Automobile plans to acquire all shares of Zeekr Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., which it currently holds approximately 65.7% of, aiming for a complete merger [4] - The privatization of Zeekr is intended to promote deep integration of internal resources and enhance operational efficiency, thereby improving the company's core competitiveness and long-term value [7] - The merger is expected to create a unified platform that enhances the competitive edge of the group's passenger vehicle segment and allows for better strategic positioning in response to global market fluctuations [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Geely Automobile are as follows: - 2023A: 179,204 million CNY - 2024A: 240,194 million CNY (YOY +34.0%) - 2025E: 322,751 million CNY (YOY +34.4%) - 2026E: 420,661 million CNY (YOY +30.3%) - 2027E: 504,956 million CNY (YOY +20.0%) [6] - Net profit estimates are: - 2023A: 5,308 million CNY - 2024A: 16,632 million CNY (YOY +213.3%) - 2025E: 12,500 million CNY (YOY -24.8%) - 2026E: 16,662 million CNY (YOY +33.3%) - 2027E: 19,696 million CNY (YOY +18.2%) [6] - The projected gross margin is expected to improve from 15.3% in 2023A to 16.9% in 2027E [6] Strategic Focus - The merger aims to leverage Zeekr's experience in the smart electric vehicle sector to benefit the entire Geely Automobile Group [7] - The company is focusing on a dual-brand strategy with Geely Automobile Group and Zeekr Technology Group, enhancing collaboration across seven key technological areas [7] - The strategic positioning of brands under Geely includes Zeekr as a global luxury tech brand and Lynk & Co as a high-end global new energy brand [8] Profitability Forecast - The forecasted net profit for Geely Automobile from 2025 to 2027 is as follows: - 2025E: 12,500 million CNY - 2026E: 16,662 million CNY - 2027E: 19,696 million CNY [8] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.24 CNY in 2025, increasing to 1.95 CNY by 2027 [10]
拟私有化极氪，“一个吉利”正当时