中美关税博弈专题系列（三）：贸易博弈下财政发力的空间、方向及着力点

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the escalating tariff war between China and the US, macro - policies need to increase counter - cyclical adjustment. Fiscal measures, especially central government initiatives, are crucial for expanding domestic demand. Different scenarios of tariff games require corresponding incremental fiscal funds, with short - term goals focusing on stabilizing economic growth and social expectations, and long - term goals on building a unified domestic market and enhancing international discourse power. A series of fiscal tools and measures should be used to address challenges and improve the efficiency of fiscal funds [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tariff Game Scenarios and Fiscal Space - Impact of Tariff War: The continuous escalation of the tariff war since April has affected China's exports and economic recovery, and increased financial market uncertainty. China's economy showed a bottom - stabilizing trend in Q1 2025 with a 5.4% GDP year - on - year growth, but still faced issues like insufficient demand and weak expectations [9]. - Fiscal Space in Different Scenarios: In the optimistic scenario, the US cancels all reciprocal tariffs, with a 0.3 - percentage - point GDP drag, and no incremental fiscal funds may be needed. In the neutral scenario, with a 34% reciprocal tariff and some export support from "re - export", the GDP growth may be dragged by 0.9 percentage points, requiring 0.6 - 1.2 trillion yuan of incremental fiscal funds. In the pessimistic scenario, a high - tariff above 145% may cause China's exports to the US to stagnate, dragging the GDP growth by over 2 percentage points and requiring over 1.7 trillion yuan of incremental fiscal funds [12]. 3.2 Fiscal Response Strategies under Tariff Games - Short - term Goals: Focus on stabilizing economic growth and social expectations, promoting domestic demand, stabilizing employment, and benefiting people's livelihoods. Provide support to export - oriented regions, industries, and enterprises, and introduce "emergency" measures. Combine policy tools, speed up the issuance and use of government bonds, and introduce new tools for consumption promotion and foreign trade stabilization [4][17]. - Long - term Goals: Build a unified domestic market, stimulate market vitality, improve total factor productivity through structural adjustment and institutional reform, and enhance international discourse power. Foster a complete domestic demand system, cultivate new productive forces, and promote fiscal system reform [4][18]. 3.3 Current Fiscal Tools for Tariff Games - Treasury Bonds: Given the large breakthrough in the budget deficit rate, it is recommended to issue special treasury bonds in late October. The funds can be used for "two new" policies, support export - oriented enterprises, and supplement the capital of state - owned banks if necessary [6][21]. - Local Bonds: Increase the issuance of land reserve special bonds, accelerate the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing, and consider establishing real - estate acquisition funds. If necessary, increase the special bond quota and use it to supplement the capital of small and medium - sized banks [26][27]. - Quasi - fiscal Tools: Restart policy - based financial tools and increase the issuance of central enterprise "stable - growth and investment - expansion special bonds" to support key projects and promote economic transformation and upgrading [28]. - Tax and Social Security Policies: Introduce targeted tax incentives and temporary social security fee exemptions to strengthen people's livelihood protection [32]. - Stabilizing Foreign Trade and Supporting Science and Technology: Establish a foreign - trade stabilization fund and continue to use government investment funds to support science and technology innovation [33]. - Capital Market Support: Promote the entry of long - term and patient capital such as insurance and social security funds into the market through the "commanding - rod" role of the Ministry of Finance's performance evaluation [34]. 3.4 Improving the Efficiency of Fiscal Funds under Long - term Great - Power Games - Utilize Existing Tools: Speed up the expenditure of government bonds. In Q1 2025, the government bond issuance scale was 6.14 trillion yuan, and the issuance scale may increase in Q2 and Q3. Fiscal expenditure should be accelerated to use existing tools effectively [38]. - Optimize Expenditure Structure: Compress non - urgent expenditures, focus on key areas, and shift from "investment in things" to "investment in people". Assist in risk resolution in key areas such as the real - estate market and local debts [43][45][46]. - Strengthen Fund Supervision: Establish a full - chain and full - cycle management system, including improving the government's balance sheet, project reserve, evaluation, and direct - access mechanisms [46]. - Improve Local Bond Management: Implement negative - list management and "self - review and self - issuance" mechanisms for local bonds, especially special bonds [49]. - Enhance Policy Coordination: Strengthen expectation management and coordinate fiscal policies with monetary and industrial policies [50]. - Deepen Fiscal System Reform: Rationalize the relationship between the central and local governments, study new tax systems, promote provincial - level and below fiscal system reform, and deepen zero - based budget reform [53].