Xinda Securities·2025-05-08 11:03Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the accelerating global shift towards smoke-free products, with leading tobacco companies increasing their R&D investments and product offerings in the new tobacco sector. Major companies like Philip Morris International, British American Tobacco, Japan Tobacco, and Imperial Brands are projected to see revenue growth in new tobacco products of 15.0%, 2.5%, 21.1%, and 24.2% respectively for 2024, with significant future targets set for smoke-free revenue contributions [11][12][6] Summary by Sections New Tobacco Development - The report emphasizes the trend towards a smoke-free era, with leading companies adapting to changing consumer habits and increasing their focus on new tobacco products. For instance, Philip Morris aims for over two-thirds of its revenue to come from new tobacco products by 2030 [11][12] Regulatory Environment - The report notes a continued high-pressure regulatory environment overseas, with several countries implementing bans on disposable e-cigarettes and the FDA accelerating the PMTA process for new products. This regulatory landscape is expected to influence market dynamics and product iterations [3][12] Domestic Suppliers - Domestic suppliers are positioned to enhance their global market share. For example, Smoore International reported a revenue of 34.75 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%. The company is focusing on HNB products as a growth driver [4][15] - China Tobacco Hong Kong reported a revenue of 43.70 billion HKD in H2 2024, with a significant net profit increase of 48.4% year-on-year, indicating robust performance and strategic growth initiatives [4][17] - Yingqu Technology reported a revenue of 10.34 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a focus on vertical integration in manufacturing, which is expected to enhance its market share as HNB penetration increases globally [5][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading tobacco companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong, as well as Yingqu Technology, due to their strategic positioning and growth potential in the evolving tobacco landscape [6][18]