5月FOMC会议点评：美联储难以兼顾“双重目标”：“滞胀风险”凸显

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third consecutive "pause" since the beginning of the current rate cut cycle in September 2024, with a total reduction of 100 basis points across three meetings [2][3] - Concerns regarding "stagflation" risks have intensified, with the Fed emphasizing increased uncertainty in economic outlook and rising risks of high unemployment and inflation [3][4] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Fed's ability to provide clear guidance on interest rate paths is hampered by ongoing policy uncertainty, making it challenging to restart the rate cut cycle in the short term [4] - The Fed's stance on tariffs has shifted, acknowledging that announced tariff increases have exceeded expectations and could lead to rising inflation, slower economic growth, and higher unemployment if sustained [4] - The Fed's view on inflation has evolved, moving away from the notion of "transitory" impacts of tariffs, recognizing that the effects could be either "one-time shifts" or "persistent," depending on the scale and duration of tariffs [4] Investment Recommendations - Gold is expected to perform well amid potential "hard landing" scenarios in the U.S. economy, driven by factors such as a renewed Fed rate cut cycle, dollar depreciation, and increased central bank gold purchases [5] - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is anticipated to benefit from the Fed's rate cut cycle, with opportunities for excess returns in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5] - U.S. equities are facing a trend of adjustment rather than temporary fluctuations, with increasing economic downturn risks affecting profit growth expectations [5] - U.S. Treasury bonds may present a trend-based allocation opportunity only after inflation recedes, with potential for rapid interest rate increases due to repayment risks in the interim [5]