上市银行2025年1季报综述：非息扰动盈利，关注核心业务改善趋势

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector [1]. Core Insights - As of the end of April, 42 listed banks reported a year-on-year decline in net profit of 1.2% for Q1 2025, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points compared to 2024 [3][8]. - The report highlights a divergence in performance among banks, with some maintaining strong growth, particularly Agricultural Bank (YoY +2.2%), CITIC Bank (YoY +1.7%), and Pudong Development Bank (YoY +1.0%) among large and medium-sized banks, while regional banks like Hangzhou (YoY +17.3%), Qilu (YoY +16.5%), and Qingdao (YoY +16.4%) showed rapid growth [3][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Profit Analysis - The revenue growth rate for listed banks in Q1 2025 fell by 1.8 percentage points to -1.7% compared to 2024. Net interest income decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while commission income showed a significant improvement with a decline of only 0.7% compared to a 9.4% drop in 2024 [3][9]. - Other non-interest income saw a notable decline of 4% year-on-year, influenced by market volatility and a high base from the previous year [3][9]. 2. Operational Performance - The total asset scale of the 42 listed banks grew by 7.5% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 7.9% and deposits by 6.2%, indicating stable growth [20]. - The report notes that the annualized net interest margin for Q1 2025 decreased by 6 basis points to 1.37%, with the annualized yield on interest-earning assets dropping by 19 basis points to 2.92% [3]. 3. Cost and Income Ratio - The cost-to-income ratio for Q1 2025 was 27.0%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting pressure on revenue [5]. - The report indicates that the asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.22% and a provision coverage ratio of 238% [5]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "pro-cyclical + high dividend" investment strategy, emphasizing the attractiveness of dividend yields, which average 4.49% for the sector, remaining historically high [5]. - Specific recommendations include regional banks such as Chengdu, Changsha, Suzhou, and Ningbo, as well as large banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank for their high dividend attributes [5].