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降息降准落地,息差影响中性偏积极,银行股价值凸显
China Post Securities·2025-05-08 12:03

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Viewpoints - The recent interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions are expected to have a neutral to positive impact on banks' net interest margins [4][13] - The policy signals are significant and are likely to improve the fundamentals of the banking sector, stimulating credit and asset investments [6][19] - The overall outlook for bank asset quality is expected to improve due to new financing regulations and support for the real estate sector [19] Summary by Sections 1. Impact of Interest Rate Cuts and Reserve Requirement Ratio Reductions - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.1 percentage point cut in the 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.4%, which is expected to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [13] - The reserve requirement ratio was lowered by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [13][16] 2. Policy Signals and Their Implications 2.1 Stimulating Credit and Asset Investments - The central bank has increased the quota for re-lending to support technological innovation and small enterprises, potentially unlocking about 1.8 trillion yuan in new credit [6][16] - Additional re-lending quotas have been established for consumer services and agriculture, indicating a broadening of credit support [6][16] 2.2 Improvement in Bank Asset Quality - New financing regulations are expected to stabilize the real estate market, leading to a marginal improvement in the quality of housing-related loans [19] - The policies reflect the central government's focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations, which may enhance the overall asset quality of banks [19] 3. Investment Recommendations - Following the interest rate cuts, there is an opening for lower risk-free interest rates, highlighting the value of state-owned banks [21] - Recommended banks include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications [21] - Regional banks such as Chongqing Bank, Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank, Chengdu Bank, and Qilu Bank are also recommended due to expected credit support from fiscal policies [21]