白糖、豆一大跌

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the recent trends and influencing factors of various agricultural products. Overall, the prices of some products are under pressure due to factors such as increased supply and weak demand, while others are supported by factors like strong demand and limited supply [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Sugar - Trend: The main 2509 contract of sugar gapped down and fell sharply, affected by the decline in the external market [2]. - Influencing Factors: Brazil's new sugar - cane crushing season has a strong start, with sufficient supply and expected production increase, which strengthens the market's expectation of loose supply. The domestic import profit window for out - of - quota sugar is open, and the subsequent arrival pressure may increase. The spot trading is light [2]. - Strategy: Hold light - position short positions, with support at 5800 and resistance at 5849 [2]. (2) Soybean No.1 - Trend: The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 reversed and fell sharply, entering a downward trend [3]. - Influencing Factors: The acceptance of high - priced domestic soybeans in the market is low, and the overall market trading is light. The arrival of imported soybeans eases the shortage of soybeans in oil mills, and the consumption of soy products enters the off - season [3]. - Strategy: Close long positions and hold light - position short positions, with support at 4100 and resistance at 4194 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - Trend: The main 2509 contract of palm oil first declined and then rose, but the price is still in a downward trend [5]. - Influencing Factors: The decline of the Malaysian palm oil futures price in the external market is narrowed by short - covering. The export growth rate of Malaysian palm oil is lower than the production growth rate, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. The domestic import profit of palm oil rises, and the subsequent purchases increase, but the demand is still suppressed by the inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil [5]. - Strategy: Hold light - position short positions, with support at 7812 and resistance at 7974 [5]. (4) Soybean Oil - Trend: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil oscillated and declined [7]. - Influencing Factors: The overall inventory of the three major domestic oils has increased, and the inventory of soybean oil has increased significantly. With the increase in the arrival of soybeans, the oil mill's operating rate will rise, and the supply of soybean oil will increase [7]. - Strategy: Conduct short - term trading, with support at 7712 and resistance at 7782 [7]. (5) Soybean Meal - Trend: The main 2509 contract of soybean meal oscillated narrowly, and the downward trend remained unchanged [10]. - Influencing Factors: The operating rhythms of soybean oil mills in different regions are different, and the spot prices in the north and south are differentiated. With the increase in soybean supply, the oil mill's operating rate will rise, and the supply of soybean meal will increase. The downstream feed enterprises are cautious, and the trade enterprises have some purchases [10]. - Strategy: Hold light - position short positions, with support at 2895 and resistance at 2930 [10]. (6) Corn - Trend: The main 2507 contract of corn declined slightly and fluctuated at a high level [11]. - Influencing Factors: The remaining grain in the corn - producing areas is almost sold out, and the trading entities are reluctant to sell. The operating rate of downstream corn starch enterprises has increased, and the demand from feed enterprises has also gradually increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly [13]. - Strategy: Hold light - position long positions on dips, with support at 2351 and resistance at 2387 [13]. (7) Live Pigs - Trend: The 2509 contract of live pigs was restricted in rebound, oscillated and declined, and the downward trend continued [14]. - Influencing Factors: The存栏 of the breeding end is at a high level, and the willingness to sell has increased. The planned slaughter volume in May has increased. After the May Day holiday, the demand has decreased, and the support from the demand side is insufficient [14]. - Strategy: Hold light - position short positions on rallies, with support at 13800 and resistance at 13940 [17]. (8) Eggs - Trend: The contracts of eggs showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the main 2506 contract of the near - month oscillated slightly, but the downward trend remained unchanged [18]. - Influencing Factors: The存栏 of laying hens is at a high level, and the supply of eggs is sufficient. During the May Day holiday, the spot price continued to fall, the market demand decreased, and the inventory digestion was slow [18]. - Strategy: Hold light - position short positions, with support at 2850 and resistance at 2905 [18]. (9) Cotton - Trend: The main 2509 contract of cotton oscillated and closed up, continuing the rebound trend [20]. - Influencing Factors: The meeting between Chinese and US senior officials on tariff issues has boosted market sentiment. The strong rise of cotton yarn futures has driven the rise of cotton. However, the weak downstream demand limits the rebound height [20]. - Strategy: Hold light - position long positions, with support at 12885 and resistance at 13015 [20]. (10) Apples - Trend: The main 2510 contract of apples fell sharply, and the trend turned downward [22]. - Influencing Factors: After the festival, the purchase speed of market merchants has slowed down. The apple inventory is still at a five - year low, but the inventory reduction speed has slowed down slightly. The futures price was under pressure from long - position liquidation and broke through the support level [22]. - Strategy: Hold light - position short positions and set stop - losses, with support at 7722 and resistance at 7828 [22].