全国碳市场行情简报（2025年第70期）-20250508

Report Title - National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 70, 2025) [1] Report Provider - Guotai Junan Futures [2] Release Date - May 8, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - CEA trading volume continued to decline, and prices of CEA from different years showed divergent trends. CEA23 slightly declined, while CEA24 stopped falling and rebounded. The listed volume was 56,200 tons, and the bulk volume was 100,000 tons. CCER's listed agreement trading volume was 20,000 tons, with an average transaction price of 91.01 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.20%. It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap wait and see temporarily and purchase when the price drops to an appropriate level [3]. - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand. About 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises. The new industries included in 2024 have no quota gap for compliance, and the quota gap in the national carbon market may be lowered, but the impact on the supply - demand balance is limited. The expansion plan brings short - term negative sentiment and may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas. The bottom range of the CEA comprehensive price in May is 50 - 60 yuan/ton. The exhaustion node of mandatory circulation quotas is postponed, and the upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter. If the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to move backward, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height [3][4] Summary by Directory CEA Market - CEA19 - 20, CEA21, and CEA22 had a closing price of 73.00 yuan/ton, 70.50 yuan/ton, and 73.00 yuan/ton respectively, with a 0.00% change. CEA23 closed at 69.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47%, and CEA24 closed at 70.59 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.84%. The total trading volume of CEA23 was 15,000 tons, and that of CEA24 was 141,200 tons [6]. CCER Market - The average transaction price of CCER was 91.01 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.20%. The trading volume was 20,000 tons, and the cumulative trading volume was 1,709,900 tons. The transaction amount was 1.823 million yuan [8]