Haitong Securities International·2025-05-08 12:27Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Alphabet (GOOGL US) but discusses the potential challenges and opportunities in the context of AI-driven search engines. Core Insights - Google's search business is under significant pressure from AI-driven competition, particularly with Apple's potential integration of AI search engines into Safari, which could jeopardize Google's default search engine status and its associated $20 billion annual revenue from Apple [2][9][11]. - The introduction of AI Overviews by Google aims to stabilize ad revenue in the short term while addressing the need for innovation in search monetization models to adapt to an AI-native ecosystem [3][12][13]. - Despite recent challenges, including a decline in Chrome's market share and competition from AI search engines, Google's long-term potential remains promising due to its Gemini large language model, which could drive future growth in AI search [5][14]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On May 7, 2025, Apple's Eddy Cue indicated that Apple is exploring AI-powered search engines as alternatives to Google Search, leading to a decline in search volume in Safari [1][8]. Competitive Landscape - Google's annual payment of approximately $20 billion to Apple for default search status is at risk if Apple adopts AI search engines, which could negatively impact Google's ad business [2][9]. - Statcounter data shows that Chrome's global search market share has fallen below 90% over the past seven months, indicating significant disruption from AI [2][9]. Google's Response - Google has launched AI Overviews, integrating AI into its search engine to maintain market leadership, serving over 1.5 billion users monthly across 140 countries [3][12]. - The monetization rates for AI-generated summaries are reported to be on par with traditional search, helping to stabilize ad revenue [4][12]. Future Outlook - While the shift to AI search poses immediate challenges, Google's core assets, particularly the Gemini model, position it well for future growth in AI-driven search [5][14]. - The report suggests that market reactions to recent negative news may be overdone, and Google's long-term AI monetization potential remains optimistic [5][14].