Wanlian Securities·2025-05-08 12:47Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [5][32]. Core Insights - The transportation industry has seen a continuous decline in public fund holdings for three consecutive quarters, indicating a low allocation status. As of Q1 2025, the total market value of public fund holdings in the SW transportation industry was 42.588 billion, down 15.3% from Q4 2024, and accounted for 1.41% of the total market value of public fund holdings in A-shares, which is below the benchmark allocation by 2.07 percentage points [2][11]. - The report highlights that all sub-sectors within the transportation industry experienced reductions in holdings, with defensive sectors like road and rail potentially gaining favor due to tariff war disturbances, while cyclical sectors like aviation may continue to recover and exceed expectations due to ongoing domestic demand expansion policies [1][3][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry: Decline in Heavyweight Allocation - The total market value of public fund holdings in the SW transportation industry as of Q1 2025 was 42.588 billion, reflecting a 15.3% decrease from Q4 2024. This represents a continuous decline over three quarters [2][11]. 2. Stocks: General Reduction Across Sub-sectors - All sub-sectors faced reductions, with specific impacts noted: - Logistics: Major reductions in cross-border logistics stocks, while some stocks like China Foreign Trade and JD Logistics saw increases [3][22]. - Shipping and Ports: Most stocks in the port sector were reduced, with only a few like Beibu Gulf Port seeing increases [3][22]. - Rail and Road: Mixed performance with some highway stocks like Guangdong Expressway A seeing increases, while others faced reductions [3][22]. - Aviation: Stocks like China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines saw increases, while others faced significant reductions [3][22]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while the transportation industry is currently underweighted, the defensive attributes of road and rail sectors may attract interest amidst tariff uncertainties. Conversely, the aviation sector may benefit from domestic demand policies, suggesting a potential for recovery and exceeding expectations [1][30].