化工日报-20250508

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend with different products facing various supply - demand situations and price movements [2][3][4] - Some products are affected by factors such as import volume, production capacity utilization, downstream demand, and cost changes [2][6][7] - Market sentiment and policy factors also play important roles in the price trends of certain products [3][7] Summary by Product Methanol - Methanol futures prices decline. Import arrivals rise to medium - high levels, MTO unit operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are low, and ports are continuously accumulating inventory. Inland unit capacity utilization rebounds significantly, and production enterprise inventories increase slightly. Downstream procurement is expected to decrease, and the market may enter a inventory - accumulation cycle with supply increasing and demand weakening [2] Urea - Urea spot prices in mainstream regions are stable, and the futures market fluctuates narrowly. There are rumors of export liberalization with stricter controls. Industrial compound fertilizer production is expected to increase, and there is still a gap in agricultural demand. Production enterprise inventories turn from rising to falling. New capacity is to be launched in May, and the market may maintain a range - bound operation [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures contracts decline slightly. Polyethylene inventory accumulates after the holiday, and terminal demand is weaker than previous years. Polypropylene production recovers quickly after the holiday, but demand recovery is slow. Upstream and mid - stream inventory accumulation pressures prices, and market transactions are light [4] Styrene - Styrene futures prices continue to fall. Supply increases slightly with the restart of Wanhua's unit, and demand is stable but weak. Cost - side factors, such as the increase in gasoline inventory and the Fed's stance, make it difficult for the market sentiment to improve [6] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuate strongly, possibly due to rumors of PX unit repairs. PX valuation recovers from a low level. PTA inventory decreases due to unit maintenance, but there are risks in order improvement and new capacity is expected in the third quarter. Ethylene glycol prices rise, and its supply - demand situation may improve. Short fiber prices rebound due to cost factors, and bottle chip is in the peak demand season [7] Chlor - Alkali - PVC inventory accumulates, and prices decline. There is pressure from new capacity on the supply side, and downstream demand is weak. Caustic soda prices weaken, and although inventory decreases, it is still at a medium - high level. Downstream industries have poor profits and mainly make rigid - demand purchases [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass inventory accumulates significantly, and prices continue to fall. There is high inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream. Macro - level policies may support the market, but the current driving force is weak. Soda ash inventory continues to accumulate, and there are maintenance plans in the future. Long - term supply pressure exists [9]