5月FOMC会议点评：预防式降息：非不愿，实不能

Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds target rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations[1] - The statement emphasized increased uncertainty compared to March, highlighting risks of high unemployment and rising inflation[1] - Powell summarized the current economic situation as "good now, uncertain future, let's wait and see"[1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Net exports negatively impacted Q1 GDP, but private domestic final purchases remained strong[1] - The labor market is stable, not a significant source of inflationary pressure[1] - Short-term inflation expectations and consumer confidence indicators have weakened, but not strongly correlated with hard data like consumer spending[1] Group 3: Future Outlook and Policy - High uncertainty exists regarding tariffs' scale, timing, and impact on the economy, inflation, and employment[2] - The Fed's policy response to potential supply chain issues from tariffs is deemed ineffective[2] - The Fed is not currently facing a dilemma between inflation and employment, allowing for a patient approach to monetary policy[2] Group 4: Comparison with 2019 - In 2019, the Fed's rate cuts were preemptive due to clear risks from tariffs and low inflation pressures, with unemployment dropping from 4% to 3.6%[3] - Current conditions present a greater likelihood of facing inflation and employment challenges, making preemptive cuts less feasible[4] - Inflation remains above target, with short-term inflation expectations at risk of decoupling[4] Group 5: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, market reactions were relatively mild, with slight increases in stock indices and a decrease in bond yields[2] - The implied policy rate for year-end rose from 3.52% to 3.565%, while the probability of a rate cut in June dropped from 33.7% to 20.1%[2]