美国一季度GDP点评：美国经济的上行or下行风险有哪些？

Group 1: Economic Downside Risks - The U.S. GDP for Q1 2025 showed an unexpected decline with a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of -0.3%, against an expectation of -0.2% and a previous value of +2.4%[2] - Tariffs are identified as the largest source of uncertainty for economic downturn, with the U.S. accounting for 16% of global imports and 1/3 of global final consumption goods imports[3] - If U.S. import growth declines by more than 5% this year, it could significantly pressure the global economy, as historical data shows only three instances in the past 30 years where import growth fell below -5% during recession periods[4] Group 2: Consumer Spending Risks - The wealth effect in the U.S. is highly sensitive to stock market performance; a 10.4% drop in the Nasdaq in Q1 2025 could lead to a reduction in excess wealth by 27%-61%[5] - If the Nasdaq continues to decline or remains flat, consumer resilience may be severely impacted, with expectations for future stock and housing prices weakening[6] - In 2025, the growth rate of residents' salary income is expected to weaken to approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in 2024, indicating a challenging income environment for consumers[6] Group 3: Financial Market Risks - The U.S. financial market faces multiple risks, including tight liquidity in the money market and high leverage ratios, which could amplify market volatility and impact economic growth[8] - The potential for further financial market fluctuations exists, particularly in the context of significant political uncertainties such as tariffs[8] Group 4: Potential Upside Risks - Private investment may present a potential upside risk, as real estate investment is expected to stabilize within 1-2 years following the Fed's interest rate cuts[9] - Capital expenditures from major U.S. tech companies are projected to increase, with a 19% upward revision for 2025 compared to earlier forecasts, indicating continued investment in the AI sector[9]