HUAXI Securities·2025-05-08 14:20Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The domestic consumption of home goods is significantly boosted by government subsidies, leading to a recovery in profit margins for the home furnishing sector [1][4] - The electric bicycle sector is experiencing a rebound in demand due to subsidy policies, with notable sales increases in 2025Q1 [5][6] - Export performance remains strong, with companies like Yiyi and Gongchuang achieving substantial revenue growth [9][11] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is negatively impacted by a double-digit decline in new residential sales and construction areas in 2024, with custom home furnishing revenue expected to drop by 14.9% [1] - Government subsidies are expected to stimulate demand, with a total of approximately 300 billion yuan allocated for consumer goods upgrades [1] - Revenue growth for finished home furnishings is projected to improve in 2024Q2 to 2025Q1, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.3%, +5%, +8.9%, and +8.5% respectively [1] - Custom home furnishing revenue is expected to decline less sharply in 2025Q1, with a year-on-year decrease of only -5.7% [1] Two-Wheeled Vehicles - The electric bicycle market faced initial challenges due to safety concerns but is now recovering, with significant sales increases driven by government replacement subsidies [5][6] - Companies like Aima and Yadi are expected to benefit from this recovery, with Aima's revenue growing by 25.8% in 2025Q1 [6] - The motorcycle segment is also performing well, with companies like Chunfeng and Longxin exceeding expectations in 2025Q1 [7][8] Exports - Yiyi's revenue increased by 34.41% in 2024, with export revenue accounting for 93.57% of total revenue [9] - Henglin's revenue reached 110.29 billion yuan in 2024, driven by cross-border e-commerce growth [10] - Gongchuang's international market performance is strong, with 88.91% of its revenue coming from exports [11] Paper and Packaging - The paper industry is facing profit pressure due to rising costs, with companies like Sun Paper and Zhongshun experiencing revenue declines [13] - The packaging sector is seeing improvements, particularly in paper packaging driven by 3C demand [13] Beauty and Personal Care - Domestic beauty brands are thriving, with companies like Proya and Marubi showing significant revenue growth in 2025Q1 [14][15] - The beauty market is experiencing a shift, with international brands facing challenges while local brands gain market share [14] Stationery and Toys - The toy sector is booming, with companies like Pop Mart and Blucor reporting substantial revenue increases [23] - The stationery market remains resilient, with strong growth in cultural and office supplies [23] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the home furnishing sector include Oppein, Kuka, and Zhijia [28] - In the two-wheeled vehicle sector, Aima and Yadi are highlighted as key beneficiaries of subsidy policies [28] - Export-focused companies like Yiyi and Gongchuang are recommended due to their strong performance [28] - In the beauty and personal care sector, brands like Proya and Marubi are expected to continue their growth trajectory [29]