地方政府债供给及交易跟踪：地方债利差高位

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the supply and trading situation of local government bonds, including the overview of the stock market, the rhythm of primary - supply, and the characteristics of secondary - trading, presenting the current status and trends of the local government bond market [12][20][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Stock Market Overview - As of April 30, 2025, the stock size of local government bonds reached 50.51 trillion yuan, with the market continuously expanding. New special bonds accounted for over 43%, and refinancing special bonds accounted for 21% [12]. - Among the bonds with clear funding uses, the stock balances of shantytown renovation, new district construction in industrial parks, and rural revitalization exceeded 1 trillion yuan. The stock balance of toll roads exceeded 870 billion yuan, and that of water conservancy and ecological projects exceeded 200 billion yuan [12]. - As of April 30, 2025, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong ranked top three in terms of local government bond stock size, all exceeding 3 trillion yuan. Other major GDP - contributing provinces such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hunan, Henan, Hebei, and Hubei also had stock sizes above 2 trillion yuan [12]. 3.2 Primary Supply Rhythm - In the week from April 28 - 30, 2025, with fewer working days, local government bonds worth 93.091 billion yuan were issued, including 116.707 billion yuan of new special bonds and 15.465 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/project revenue" and "repayment of local bonds" were the main investment areas for special bond funds [20]. - As of April 30, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in April had reached 261.669 billion yuan, accounting for 37.74% of the monthly local government bond issuance [20]. - In terms of the issuance term structure, the issuance proportion of local government bonds with terms within 7 years and 10 - 20 years was relatively high, both exceeding 30%. The average coupon rates of major - term local government bonds were basically the same as those two weeks ago [30]. - The spread between the issuance rate of 30 - year local government bonds and the same - term treasury bonds narrowed to 20.32BP, while the spread of 20 - year local government bonds widened slightly to 12.78BP. The upper limit of the bid - rate last week was basically the same as that two weeks ago, and the primary - tender sentiment rebounded significantly [30]. - Regionally, many provinces issued new bonds last week. Hunan had the largest issuance volume this month with a balanced term distribution; Heilongjiang followed, with terms mainly concentrated in 10 - 20 years; Jiangsu showed a short - term characteristic, all within 7 years. Most regions had an average issuance rate of 2% or lower, with Guizhou having the highest rate of 2.1%, and Shandong, Sichuan, Jiangxi, and Jilin also reaching over 2% [5][38]. 3.3 Secondary Trading Characteristics - Since mid - to - late March this year, the yield of local government bonds has been in a continuous downward - oscillation trend. As of April 30, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local government bonds was 1.88%, with a spread of 25.57BP compared to the same - term treasury bonds, at the 86% quantile since 2024. The quantiles of the price spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year bonds were 96.9% and 97.2% respectively [43]. - Last week, the turnover rate of local government bonds decreased, and the turnover rates of all - term varieties dropped significantly compared to two weeks ago. The 10 - year - plus varieties still had the highest weekly turnover rate, at 0.98%. Regionally, only Jiangsu and Zhejiang had over 100 trading volumes last week. The average trading term of local government bonds last week was 17.3 years, with an average yield of 1.98% [48]. - In terms of the investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary departments, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local government bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertakers of local government bond supply, with a total net purchase of 24.16 billion yuan, of which the purchase of 20 - 30 - year and above varieties accounted for 63.13%. Wealth management products had a net purchase of 10.438 billion yuan last week, an increase compared to two weeks ago, mainly in the 5 - 10 - year and 10 - 20 - year varieties [50].