渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.09）-20250509

Macro and Strategy Research - The GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 5.4% year-on-year, indicating a strong start, particularly in the "two new and two heavy" sectors [2] - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in May, with expectations for the next cut potentially in July, while domestic liquidity is expected to become more abundant following the implementation of monetary policy adjustments [3] - A-share market liquidity has shown resilience due to structural support from central government funds and a potential end to the outflow of financing, creating new opportunities for inflows as new market themes emerge [3][4] - The performance of A-share companies in Q1 2025 showed a recovery in net profit growth, particularly among small and mid-cap stocks, indicating improved profitability [4] Industry Research - The engineering machinery sector has seen a significant increase in operating rates, with Q1 2025 excavator sales reaching 61,400 units, a 22.8% year-on-year increase, and domestic sales growing by 38.3% [6] - The average operating rate for engineering machinery in Q1 2025 was 44.67%, with 12 provinces exceeding 50%, indicating a positive trend in demand as the traditional peak season approaches [6] - Tesla's humanoid robot production is expected to ramp up significantly, with thousands of units planned for 2025 and a projected annual output of one million by 2029 or 2030, suggesting potential growth in the robotics sector [7] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the engineering machinery industry, recommending increased holdings in companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and others [7]