五矿期货文字早评-20250509

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by factors such as Trump's tariff policies, domestic and overseas monetary policies, and trade negotiations. Different asset classes show various trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the stock index market, it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" on dips. In the bond market, it is advisable to be cautious on the long - end and focus on the short - end. In the commodity market, different strategies are proposed for each commodity based on their fundamentals [2][4][6]. Summary by Category Stock Index - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.28%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.65%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.36%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 129.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.49 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - Macro News: The National Development and Reform Commission is improving the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and will launch high - quality projects with a total investment of about 3 trillion yuan this year. The Financial Regulatory Administration has established 74 private equity investment funds to support investment in science and technology innovation enterprises. The UK and the US have reached an agreement on tariff trade terms [2]. - Funding: The margin trading balance increased by 7.22 billion yuan. The overnight Shibor rate decreased by 11.80bp to 1.5390%. The 3 - year corporate bond AA - level interest rate decreased by 2.67bp to 3.0673%, the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate decreased by 1.28bp to 1.6330%, and the credit spread decreased by 1.39bp to 143bp [2]. - PE, PB, Dividend Yield, and Futures Basis Ratio: PE of CSI 300 is 12.45, etc.; PB of CSI 300 is 1.30, etc.; dividend yield of CSI 300 is 3.52%, etc.; futures basis ratio of IF, IC, IM, and IH shows different values [3]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy [4]. Treasury Bond - Market Performance: On Thursday, the TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts rose 0.26%, 0.17%, 0.16%, and 0.05% respectively [5]. - News: The National Development and Reform Commission supports private enterprises to participate in major projects. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged on May 7, and the Bank of England cut the interest rate on May 8 [5][6]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted a 158.6 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Thursday, with a net investment of 158.6 billion yuan [6]. - Strategy: Be cautious on the long - end as the long - end interest rate has priced in the interest rate cut expectation. The short - end is more cost - effective. Pay attention to the tariff negotiation process and economic data [6]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: Shanghai gold fell 1.81% to 786.42 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.12% to 8154.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.41% to 3319.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.01% to 32.62 US dollars/ounce [7]. - Market Outlook: Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and the UK, and Germany is also working on resolving trade disputes. Overseas trade risks are released, which is a short - term negative factor for gold prices. The US labor market data is still resilient [7]. - Strategy: Wait for price corrections to go long on gold. Be cautious on silver and consider short - term shorting or waiting [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: LME copper rose 0.73% to 9474 US dollars/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78140 yuan/ton. The copper raw material is in short supply, and the inventory is declining. However, due to inflation expectations and macro uncertainties, copper prices face adjustment pressure [10]. - Aluminum: LME aluminum rose 1.18% to 2408 US dollars/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 19570 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is under pressure due to tariff policies and weak manufacturing, but inventory reduction provides short - term support [11]. - Zinc: SHFE zinc index fell 0.22% to 22036 yuan/ton. Zinc ore is in surplus, and zinc prices may decline further [12]. - Lead: SHFE lead index rose 0.50% to 16774 yuan/ton. Lead prices may oscillate in a range in the medium term and show a weak short - term trend [13]. - Nickel: SHFE nickel rose 0.29% to 124000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel fell 0.35% to 15575 US dollars/ton. The supply of nickel exceeds demand, and it is recommended to hold short positions [14]. - Tin: SHFE tin rose 0.10% to 263090 yuan/ton. The supply of tin may turn loose in the future, and tin prices may decline [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: The MMLC index fell 0.76%. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has stopped increasing. Pay attention to market changes [16][17]. - Alumina: The alumina index rose 3.33% to 2793 yuan/ton. Due to uncertainties in production capacity, it is recommended to wait and see [18]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel main contract fell 0.04% to 12705 yuan/ton. The market is in a game between policies and fundamentals, and the price may oscillate [19]. Black Building Materials - Steel: The rebar main contract fell 1.48% to 3052 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract fell 0.80% to 3191 yuan/ton. The traditional peak season is over, and the demand for steel products is weakening, and the price may oscillate weakly [21][22]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore main contract fell 2.05% to 693.50 yuan/ton. The supply has slightly decreased, and the demand may peak and decline. The price may be weak [23]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass prices may be weak as the inventory has increased. Soda ash supply is high, and the price may also be weak [24][25]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Manganese silicon rose 2.86% to 5758 yuan/ton, and ferrosilicon rose 0.77% to 5472 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see as both are in a downward trend [26][27]. - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon rose 0.30% to 8315 yuan/ton. It is in a supply - surplus situation, and it is recommended to wait and see [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals - Rubber: Rubber prices are oscillating. Thailand may delay rubber tapping, which is a potential positive factor. The demand is in a seasonal off - season. It is recommended to trade with a neutral strategy [35][36][38]. - Crude Oil: WTI crude oil rose 4.02% to 60.28 US dollars, Brent crude oil rose 3.56% to 63.12 US dollars, and INE crude oil fell 1.54% to 461 yuan. It is recommended to take profits on dips and consider short - term long positions [39][41]. - Methanol: The 09 - contract of methanol fell 23 yuan/ton to 2216 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to go short [42]. - Urea: The 09 - contract of urea fell 4 yuan/ton to 1882 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to wait for a better entry point to go long [43]. - Styrene: The 06 - contract of styrene fell 105 yuan/ton to 6936 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [44]. - PVC: The 09 - contract of PVC fell 37 yuan to 4839 yuan. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price may oscillate weakly [45][46]. - Ethylene Glycol: The 09 - contract of ethylene glycol rose 23 yuan to 4222 yuan. The industry is in a de - stocking stage, but there are risks in the medium term. Pay attention to the de - stocking situation [47]. - PTA: The 09 - contract of PTA rose 80 yuan to 4546 yuan. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The short - term valuation has support [48]. - Para - xylene: The 09 - contract of para - xylene rose 116 yuan to 6404 yuan. It is in the maintenance season, and the short - term valuation has support, but the price increase is limited by crude oil [49][50]. - Polyethylene (PE): The PE price may oscillate as the supply is increasing and the demand is in the off - season [51]. - Polypropylene (PP): The PP price may oscillate weakly as the supply is stable and the demand is declining [52]. Agricultural Products - Hog: The domestic hog price fluctuated slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds and wait and see in the short term [54]. - Egg: The egg price was stable or declined. It is recommended to short on rebounds as the supply is high [55]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The US soybean rose slightly. The future soybean supply is expected to increase, and the domestic soybean meal price may decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the 11 - 1 spread [56][57]. - Edible Oils: The palm oil export increased, and the production also increased. The oil price may decline due to crude oil and production factors, but there may be support in the medium term [58][59]. - Sugar: The domestic sugar price fell. The domestic sugar market has good sales, but the price may decline as the international price drops [60][61]. - Cotton: The cotton price oscillated weakly. The domestic cotton market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Pay attention to trade negotiations and inventory changes [62][63].