中国神华：长协稳定业绩，分红成长可期-20250509

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for China Shenhua Energy Company (601088.SH) [3][8] Core Views - The company reported a 21.1% year-on-year decline in revenue for Q1 2025, totaling 69.585 billion yuan, and an 18.0% decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to 11.949 billion yuan [3] - The increase in long-term contracts has stabilized performance, and dividend growth is expected [3][7] - The coal segment's gross margin improved to 30.1%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decrease in coal sales volume [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 basic earnings per share (EPS) was 0.601 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 2.80%, down 0.74 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s total assets as of March 30, 2025, were 672.307 billion yuan, a 0.60% increase year-on-year, while net assets rose by 3.2% to 433.114 billion yuan [3] - The average coal selling price decreased by 11.5% to 506 yuan per ton, while the average unit sales cost fell by 13.07% to 353 yuan per ton [3][4] Segment Performance Summary - The coal segment generated revenue of 51.599 billion yuan, down 25.7% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 15.509 billion yuan [3] - The power segment's revenue was 20.854 billion yuan, a 14.7% decline, with a gross margin of 15.4%, down 1.3 percentage points [4] - The transportation segment's revenue decreased across various divisions, with coal chemical gross margins improving [5] Future Outlook - EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.74, 2.89, and 2.96 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.1, 13.4, and 13.1 [8][10] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of at least 65% of net profit attributable to shareholders over the next three years [7]