合成橡胶：震荡有支撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 1, indicating a neutral view on the industry [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals currently have a neutral driving force on synthetic rubber. Although there is no significant upward or downward driving force in the fundamentals, the valuation provides some support for the price due to the lack of obvious inventory accumulation and the improvement in apparent demand [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the butadiene rubber (BR) main contract (06 contract) decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 11,370 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 14,549 lots to 106,954 lots, the open interest decreased by 1,070 lots to 24,034 lots, and the trading value decreased by 85.122 million yuan to 603.27 million yuan [1] - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong BR - futures main contract decreased by 45 to 230, and the monthly spread of BR05 - BR06 (private) increased by 115 to 80 [1] - Spot Market: The market price of Shandong BR (deliverable) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,600 yuan/ton. The prices of BR in North China, East China, and South China (private) remained unchanged. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (SBR) (types 1502 and 1712) remained unchanged. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Fundamentals: The operating rate of BR remained unchanged at 74.2678%, the theoretical full - cost of BR remained unchanged at 11,873 yuan/ton, and the profit of BR remained unchanged at - 173 yuan/ton [1] 3.2. Industry News - Butadiene Situation: The price of Asian butadiene remained stable, and the domestic butadiene fundamentals improved with support around 9,000 yuan/ton. The operating rate of the butadiene industry was still at a high level year - on - year but decreased month - on - month due to the centralized maintenance of some ethylene plants. Short - term import arrivals were limited. The demand from BR for butadiene increased, and the rigid demand from SBR, ABS, and SBS for butadiene was maintained. The inventory of butadiene producers decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [1][3] - Butadiene Rubber Situation: With the decline in the cost side, the processing profit of BR increased, and the operating rate of the supply side was expected to increase. The apparent demand for BR increased significantly, and the substitution demand supported the total demand for BR. The inventory was at a high level year - on - year, and the fundamentals were in a neutral pattern [1][3]